Texas Electricity Rates Chart: 6-Year Commercial Trend and Live Per-TDU Bands (2021-2026)
Texas commercial rates moved 7.92 to 8.64 c/kWh from 2021 to 2026, a 9.1% climb. On 2026-09-04 the live TxCP catalog reads 7.28 c/kWh across 8,477 active plans, up 1.3% week-over-week, with per-TDU medians in a tight 6.35 to 6.64 c/kWh band.
The Texas commercial retail rate has moved from 7.92 c/kWh in January 2021 to 8.64 c/kWh in January 2026, a 9.1% climb over six years, per EIA Table 5.6.A. Against that six-year context, the live TxCP catalog on 2026-09-04 shows a market-wide average of 7.28 c/kWh across 8,477 active commercial plans, up 1.3% week-over-week, with per-TDU medians in a tight 6.35 to 6.64 c/kWh band. Wholesale ERCOT has swung far harder over the same window, which is exactly why the contract structure matters more than the headline rate. This article walks the six-year EIA trend, sets it next to ERCOT wholesale data, and grounds the discussion in today's actual per-TDU bands so a commercial buyer can evaluate a quote in context. For the underlying market mechanics, see how Texas commercial electricity works.
What has the Texas commercial electricity rate done over six years?
The data below is pulled from EIA Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A, which reports the average revenue per kilowatt-hour by state and end-use sector. January is used as the comparison month because it removes summer-peak distortion and aligns with most renewal cycles.
| Year (January) | Texas Commercial (c/kWh) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 7.92 | (baseline) |
| 2022 | 8.15 | +2.9% |
| 2023 | 8.28 | +1.6% |
| 2024 | 8.41 | +1.6% |
| 2025 | 8.46 | +0.6% |
| 2026 | 8.64 | +2.1% |
For context, the U.S. commercial average in January 2026 was roughly 14.1 c/kWh, so Texas commercial buyers paid about 39% less than the national mean. The reason the Texas average rises in single-digit percent steps rather than tracking wholesale moves is that retail competition compresses the energy-only portion of a contract, while pass-through items (TDU delivery, ancillaries, transmission cost recovery) drift up at PUCT-approved schedules.
What do current per-TDU rate bands look like right now?
EIA is the long-run anchor. For a buyer taking a quote this week, the more useful reference is the live catalog across every active commercial plan in Texas. Pulled from the TxCP scrape covering 8,477 active plans across 29 REPs on 2026-09-04, up 1,413 plans (20%) from the 7,064-plan snapshot four weeks earlier.
| TDU Territory | Active Plans | Median Rate (c/kWh) | Market Avg (c/kWh) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oncor | 2,036 | 6.35 | 7.07 |
| CenterPoint | 1,519 | 6.51 | 7.41 |
| AEP Central | 1,756 | 6.64 | 7.32 |
| AEP North | 1,400 | 6.53 | 7.39 |
| TNMP | 1,766 | 6.50 | 7.28 |
The medians move in a tight 6.35 to 6.64 c/kWh range, narrower than the 6.50 to 6.79 band a month earlier, though the min-to-max spread inside each utility remains large because 60-month fixed plans and short-term variable products sit on the same board. Term matters as much as territory. Long-term (37 months and over) plans hold a median of 6.60 c/kWh at a market average of 6.98 across 1,115 active plans. Mid-term (13 to 36 months) medians land at 6.21 with an average of 6.50 across 2,151 plans. Short-term (12 months and under) medians are lowest at 6.10, but the average pushes to 8.00 across 3,229 plans because the top of the range widens sharply. For an interactive view across the full catalog, see compare commercial plans.
Why does the ERCOT wholesale price move so much more than the retail rate?
The retail average is steady. The wholesale market, where Retail Electric Providers actually buy power, is not. ERCOT publishes real-time settlement point prices that show a very different shape over the same window.
| Year | ERCOT real-time avg ($/MWh) | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | ~ 43 | Winter Storm Uri scarcity event in February |
| 2022 | ~ 89 | Heat domes and gas volatility doubled the average |
| 2023 | ~ 62 | Battery and renewables build-out |
| 2024 | ~ 55 | Mild weather absorbed demand growth |
| 2025 | ~ 68 | Data-center load began binding peaks |
| 2026 Q1 | ~ 45.72 | Mild winter, load shape shifting |
Sources: ERCOT settlement-point data and the EIA Wholesale Markets update. The 2022 average was more than double the 2021 average. The retail commercial number rose by less than 3 cents over the same year. That gap shows up in fixed-rate contracts. A buyer who locked a fixed energy rate in late 2021 was insulated from the 2022 wholesale spike. A buyer on an indexed or variable contract was not. For ongoing tracking, see ERCOT market news.
What is the forward-rate outlook for Texas commercial buyers?
The forward picture is dominated by load growth. The ERCOT 2025 Long-Term Load Forecast Report projects peak demand rising from about 87 GW in 2025 to 145 GW by 2031, a 66% increase in six years. The TEPRI ERCOT Affordability Outlook attributes roughly 24 GW of that to data-center load by 2031, a number consistent with industry reporting from S and P Global.
For a commercial buyer, the practical implication is that wholesale pressure through 2030 is biased upward, and the line items most likely to disrupt a steady retail trend are the non-bypassable charges: TDU delivery, ERCOT ancillary uplifts, and transmission cost recovery. Those flow through every contract regardless of REP. The weekly ERCOT report covers how those line items move month over month.
What should a commercial buyer do with this data?
- Pull the EIA series for January (or your preferred reference month) once a year. Use it as a long-run anchor when comparing quotes.
- Compare the contract's energy rate against the ERCOT forward strip, not the EIA all-in average. The EIA number includes TDU and ancillaries. A quoted REP rate often does not.
- Negotiate contract start dates ahead of summer-peak windows, when REPs are pricing in scarcity risk.
- Track the TDU delivery line on the bill independently. It is regulated by the PUCT TDU rate schedules and updates semi-annually.
- Build a 12-month forward calendar for renewal so the negotiation window does not fall in a tight market. Reference current commercial plan data when preparing.
Questions to ask your REP or broker
- Is the rate energy-only or all-in, and what specifically is included or excluded?
- How does the contract treat TDU pass-through if PUCT approves a delivery rate case during the term?
- What is the 4CP allocation method, and how is it calculated for this account?
- If any portion of the rate is indexed, what is the reference (heat rate, gas index, settlement point)?
- What is the early-termination mechanic if load drops 20% or more during the term?
For tailored questions on a specific quote, contact the TxCP team.
Frequently Asked Questions
How often does EIA update the Texas commercial rate?
Monthly, with about a two-month lag. The January 2026 data was released in April 2026. Annual data is also published in EIA Form EIA-861.
Why does a contract rate look lower than the EIA chart?
The EIA chart is an all-in average that includes TDU delivery and ancillaries. A quoted REP energy rate excludes those, so it will appear lower than the EIA average. Add the TDU line from the bill to make a fair comparison.
Does the chart include TDU delivery charges?
Yes. EIA Table 5.6.A reports total revenue divided by total kilowatt-hours sold to commercial customers, so it captures both the REP energy charge and the regulated TDU delivery charge.
Where can buyers see the ERCOT wholesale price in real time?
ERCOT publishes settlement-point prices on its public dashboards. For curated weekly summaries see the TxCP weekly market report.
Photos by Jeff Le, Stephen Dawson, and Andrew Van Hofwegen on Unsplash.