Texas Electricity Rates Chart: 6-Year Commercial Trends (2021-2026)
Texas commercial customers averaged 7.92 c/kWh in January 2021 and 8.64 c/kWh in January 2026. Here is the EIA-sourced trend, the ERCOT wholesale story behind it, and what to do with the chart.
Most search results for "texas electricity rates chart" are quote tools, not charts. They show today's price for a residential ZIP code and stop there. For a commercial buyer trying to evaluate where rates have been, where they are going, and how the contract on the table compares, that is not useful. This article presents the actual six-year trend in Texas commercial rates from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, sets it next to ERCOT wholesale data so the volatility shows up, and explains how Texas commercial electricity works at the rate-formation level. The headline number: Texas commercial customers averaged 7.92 c/kWh in January 2021 and 8.64 c/kWh in January 2026, a 9.1% rise over six years.
The 6-Year Commercial Rate Chart, Explained
The data below is pulled from EIA Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A, which reports the average revenue per kilowatt-hour by state and end-use sector. January is used as the comparison month because it removes summer-peak distortion and aligns with most renewal cycles.
| Year (January) | Texas Commercial (c/kWh) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 7.92 | (baseline) |
| 2022 | 8.15 | +2.9% |
| 2023 | 8.28 | +1.6% |
| 2024 | 8.41 | +1.6% |
| 2025 | 8.46 | +0.6% |
| 2026 | 8.64 | +2.1% |
For context, the U.S. commercial average in January 2026 was roughly 14.1 c/kWh, so Texas commercial buyers paid about 39% less than the national mean. The reason the Texas average rises in single-digit percent steps rather than tracking wholesale moves is that retail competition compresses the energy-only portion of a contract, while pass-through items (TDU delivery, ancillaries, transmission cost recovery) drift up at PUCT-approved schedules.
Why Wholesale Prices Tell a Different Story
The retail average is steady. The wholesale market, where Retail Electric Providers actually buy power, is not. ERCOT publishes real-time settlement point prices that show a very different shape over the same window:
| Year | ERCOT real-time avg ($/MWh) | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | ~ 43 | Winter Storm Uri scarcity event in February |
| 2022 | ~ 89 | Heat domes and gas volatility doubled the average |
| 2023 | ~ 62 | Battery and renewables build-out |
| 2024 | ~ 55 | Mild weather absorbed demand growth |
| 2025 | ~ 68 | Data-center load began binding peaks |
| 2026 Q1 | ~ 45.72 | Mild winter; load shape shifting |
Sources: ERCOT settlement-point data and the EIA Wholesale Markets update. The 2022 average was more than double the 2021 average. The retail commercial number rose by less than 3 cents over the same year. That gap shows up in fixed-rate contracts: a buyer who locked a fixed energy rate in late 2021 was insulated from the 2022 wholesale spike. A buyer on an indexed or variable contract was not. For ongoing tracking, see ERCOT market news.
What the Forward Trend Looks Like
The forward picture is dominated by load growth. The ERCOT 2025 Long-Term Load Forecast Report projects peak demand rising from about 87 GW in 2025 to 145 GW by 2031, a 66% increase in six years. The TEPRI ERCOT Affordability Outlook attributes roughly 24 GW of that to data-center load by 2031, a number consistent with industry reporting from S&P Global.
For a commercial buyer, the practical implication is that wholesale pressure through 2030 is biased upward, and the line items most likely to disrupt a steady retail trend are the non-bypassable charges: TDU delivery, ERCOT ancillary uplifts, and transmission cost recovery. Those flow through every contract regardless of REP. The weekly ERCOT report covers how those line items move month over month.
What Commercial Buyers Should Do
- Pull the EIA series for January (or your preferred reference month) once a year. Use it as a long-run anchor when comparing quotes.
- Compare the contract's energy rate against the ERCOT forward strip, not the EIA all-in average. The EIA number includes TDU and ancillaries; a quoted REP rate often does not.
- Negotiate contract start dates ahead of summer-peak windows, when REPs are pricing in scarcity risk.
- Track the TDU delivery line on the bill independently. It is regulated by the PUCT TDU rate schedules and updates semi-annually.
- Build a 12-month forward calendar for renewal so the negotiation window does not fall in a tight market. Reference current commercial plan data when preparing.
Questions to Ask Your REP or Broker
- Is the rate energy-only or all-in, and what specifically is included or excluded?
- How does the contract treat TDU pass-through if PUCT approves a delivery rate case during the term?
- What is the 4CP allocation method, and how is it calculated for this account?
- If any portion of the rate is indexed, what is the reference (heat rate, gas index, settlement point)?
- What is the early-termination mechanic if load drops 20% or more during the term?
For tailored questions on a specific quote, contact the TxCP team.
Frequently Asked Questions
How often does EIA update the Texas commercial rate?
Monthly, with about a two-month lag. The January 2026 data was released in April 2026. Annual data is also published in EIA Form EIA-861.
Why does a contract rate look lower than the EIA chart?
The EIA chart is an all-in average that includes TDU delivery and ancillaries. A quoted REP energy rate excludes those, so it will appear lower than the EIA average. Add the TDU line from the bill to make a fair comparison.
Does the chart include TDU delivery charges?
Yes. EIA Table 5.6.A reports total revenue divided by total kilowatt-hours sold to commercial customers, so it captures both the REP energy charge and the regulated TDU delivery charge.
Where can buyers see the ERCOT wholesale price in real time?
ERCOT publishes settlement-point prices on its public dashboards. For curated weekly summaries see the TxCP weekly market report.
Photos by Jeff Le, Stephen Dawson, and Andrew Van Hofwegen on Unsplash.