Texas REPs Retired 255 Commercial Electricity Plans in One Day as Q3 Reset Enters Second Wave
The July 11, 2026 TxCP scrape captured 255 Texas commercial electricity plans removed and 85 new plans added in one day, dropping the active catalog to 553 plans. It is the second single-day contraction over 200 plans in the Q3 restructuring window that started July 1.
The July 11, 2026 TxCP scrape (id 75ee0fd7) recorded 255 Texas commercial electricity plans removed, 85 new plans added, 63 formal deactivations, and 192 at-risk warnings across 20 of 27 scraped retail electric providers. Active catalog: 553 commercial plans, down from roughly 656 at the end of June. It is the second single-day contraction over 200 plans in the Q3 restructuring window that started July 1, and it confirms the reset is a sustained multi-week pattern, not a one-off refresh.
Key takeaways
- 255 Texas commercial electricity plans were removed and 85 new plans added in the July 11, 2026 TxCP scrape, dropping the active catalog to 553.
- The TxCP Retirement-to-Addition Ratio hit 3.0 to 1 on July 11, up from 1.7 to 1 on July 1: the fastest catalog contraction of Q3 2026 so far.
- 192 currently active plans are flagged at-risk, an unusually deep near-term retirement bench.
- REPs are dumping short-dated (3 to 12 month) supply and adding long-dated (36 to 60 month) products, a hedge move against summer peak volatility.
- Commercial buyers with Q3 or Q4 2026 contract renewals should get RFQs in market before the next wave.
What the July 11 TxCP scrape actually captured
The single-day movement was heavily weighted toward retirements: 255 plans out, 85 in, 63 formally deactivated, 192 flagged at-risk. Net catalog change was minus 170 plans in 24 hours. 20 of 27 scraped retail electric providers modified their commercial lineups in the window, so the movement is not a one-REP or one-TDU story: it is broad-market restructuring on a compressed timeline.
Two additional signals sat behind the headline number. 63 plans moved into a formal deactivated state, meaning their EFL is no longer discoverable at the point-of-sale. Another 192 currently active plans were flagged at-risk based on prior-cycle behavior. The at-risk pool is the near-term retirement bench, and it is unusually deep going into mid-July.
How does the second wave compare to July 1?
The second wave was roughly 4 times the first on both sides of the ledger, and the TxCP Retirement-to-Addition Ratio rose from 1.7 to 1 on July 1 to 3.0 to 1 on July 11. The July 1 first wave removed 60 commercial plans and added 35, a much smaller footprint. Between July 1 and July 11, the active commercial electricity catalog fell from about 656 to 553 plans, a 15.7 percent decline in 10 days. That compresses two normal months of catalog turnover into a single mid-quarter window.
The framing has shifted with the July 11 data. On July 1, the reset looked like a one-off Q3 price refresh. After the July 10 contraction of 331 plans and the July 11 retirement of another 255, it reads as a sustained multi-week restructuring pattern that will not settle until short-dated summer supply clears.
Where did the plan losses concentrate?
Retirements landed across all five TDU territories, but not evenly: AEP Central and TNMP catalogs contracted heavily in both the July 1 and July 11 waves. Oncor and CenterPoint, the two largest by served commercial volume, saw broad-based repricing rather than deep retirements, meaning the plans that survived tend to sit at higher headline rates. Aggregate rate bands are in the Data Snapshot below.
Term-length concentration matters as much as territory concentration. Short-term commercial products (3 to 12 months) were disproportionately represented in the retirement pool. Long-term products (36 to 60 months) were disproportionately represented in the additions pool. That mix is consistent with REPs repositioning against summer-peak volatility that ERCOT's summer 2026 load forecast already flagged as record-setting.
What Batch Zero, 4CP, and summer peak have to do with the timing
Three converging Texas grid events explain the mid-July timing: the new ERCOT Batch Zero framework, the live 4CP window, and the pending summer peak. Batch Zero for large-load interconnection took effect this month after the PUCT approved it on June 18, 2026. The 4CP season is live, and its four 15-minute intervals will set every commercial buyer's 2027 transmission demand charge. ERCOT is also inside its summer peak window, and its planning documents forecast a record 95 GW system peak in 2026 based on public load projections. See industry coverage for the ERCOT summer readiness case.
REPs pulling commercial plans in bulk right now are dumping short-dated supply exposure before that summer peak hits. Adding long-term products signals they are willing to write forward power at 36 to 60 month terms because they see more stability past this summer than they see in the next 60 to 120 days. That is a real-time hedge decision baked into a catalog change, and it shows up in the July 11 data as a term-mix swap, not just a headline retirement count.
What Texas commercial electricity buyers should do now
Three actions map directly to what the July 11 scrape captured: confirm renewal timing, verify quoted plan numbers, and watch the 192-plan at-risk pool.
- Confirm your renewal timing. If your current contract expires in Q3 or Q4 2026, the plans on the shelf right now are not the plans that will be there in six weeks. Log the exact expiration date and get RFQs in market before the next retirement wave.
- Verify quoted plan numbers against the retirement list. Ask your REP or broker whether the quoted plan appears in the July 11 removed set. A quote referencing an already-retired plan means the rate on your term sheet is not the rate that will book at enrollment.
- Watch the at-risk pool. 192 currently active plans are flagged as likely candidates for the next retirement wave. Locking a firm rate before those plans retire compresses the negotiation window and reduces the odds of a last-minute rate reshoot.
Data snapshot: aggregate rate bands, July 11, 2026
Aggregate market bands across the 553 active Texas commercial electricity plans in the TxCP catalog on July 11, expressed in cents per kWh. Bands are aggregate figures only. No per-REP rates are published.
| Segment | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short-term (3 to 12 months) | 3.90 | 12.40 | 21.20 |
| Mid-term (13 to 24 months) | 6.39 | 6.80 | 15.80 |
| Long-term (25 to 60 months) | 6.34 | 7.05 | 15.30 |
Data source: TxCP scrape 75ee0fd7, July 11, 2026. Coverage of the July 13 continuation is in the next scrape report. State-level rate context is available in the EIA Texas electricity data.
Frequently asked questions
How many commercial electricity plans did Texas REPs retire on July 11, 2026?
255 previously listed commercial electricity plans were removed and 85 new plans were added in the July 11 TxCP scrape, dropping the active catalog to 553 plans. 63 plans moved into a formal deactivated state and 192 were flagged at-risk.
Why are Texas commercial electricity providers retiring plans in mid-July 2026?
The July 11 wave lines up with three converging events: the Q3 pricing reset that started July 1, the Texas 4CP season that will set 2027 transmission charges, and the ERCOT Batch Zero framework for large-load connections that PUCT approved on June 18.
What should Texas commercial buyers do if their contract renewal falls in Q3 2026?
Get RFQs in market immediately, verify that any quoted plan number is not already on the July 11 retirement list, and monitor the 192 at-risk plans as the next likely retirement wave. Rate locks obtained before those plans retire will compress the negotiation window.
How does the July 11 wave compare to the July 1 first wave?
The July 1 wave removed 60 commercial plans and added 35, a 1.7-to-1 Retirement-to-Addition Ratio. The July 11 wave removed 255 and added 85, a 3.0-to-1 ratio. Between July 1 and July 11, the active catalog fell from about 656 to 553 plans, a 15.7 percent decline in 10 days.
When is the next Texas commercial electricity plan retirement wave expected?
192 currently active plans are flagged at-risk based on prior-cycle behavior, forming a near-term retirement bench. Historical cadence suggests those plans move within one to three subsequent scrapes, so the next wave typically lands inside a two-week window.
Sources and further reading
- ERCOT summer 2026 load forecast: ercot.com/gridinfo/load
- PUCT Batch Zero and large-load rulings: puc.texas.gov
- U.S. Energy Information Administration Texas electricity data: eia.gov/electricity/state/texas
- Utility Dive ERCOT and Texas retail coverage: utilitydive.com
This report is compiled from the TxCP daily commercial-plan scrape published at texascommercialplans.com. Rate bands may recompute as mid-week retirements settle.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many commercial electricity plans did Texas REPs retire on July 11, 2026?
255 previously listed commercial electricity plans were removed and 85 new plans were added in the July 11 TxCP scrape, dropping the active catalog to 553 plans. 63 plans moved into a formal deactivated state and 192 were flagged at-risk.
Why are Texas commercial electricity providers retiring plans in mid-July 2026?
The July 11 wave lines up with three converging events: the Q3 pricing reset that started July 1, the Texas 4CP season that will set 2027 transmission charges, and the ERCOT Batch Zero framework for large-load connections that PUCT approved on June 18.
What should Texas commercial buyers do if their contract renewal falls in Q3 2026?
Get RFQs in market immediately, verify that any quoted plan number is not already on the July 11 retirement list, and monitor the 192 at-risk plans as the next likely retirement wave. Rate locks obtained before those plans retire will compress the negotiation window.
How does the July 11 wave compare to the July 1 first wave?
The July 1 wave removed 60 commercial plans and added 35, a 1.7-to-1 Retirement-to-Addition Ratio. The July 11 wave removed 255 and added 85, a 3.0-to-1 ratio. Between July 1 and July 11, the active catalog fell from about 656 to 553 plans, a 15.7 percent decline in 10 days.
When is the next Texas commercial electricity plan retirement wave expected?
192 currently active plans are flagged at-risk based on prior-cycle behavior, forming a near-term retirement bench. Historical cadence suggests those plans move within one to three subsequent scrapes, so the next wave typically lands inside a two-week window.