Henry Hub Prompt-Month Futures Fell From $3.25 to $2.70: A Buyer Window for Texas Commercial Fixed Rates

As of July 28, 2026, the CME NYMEX Henry Hub August 2026 prompt-month contract settled at $2.696 per MMBtu, down about 17 percent from its $3.245 settlement on July 6. For Texas commercial electricity buyers who paused during the summer gas rally, that is a live opening: forward power curves are recalibrating, and short-term retail sheets typically follow within one to two billing cycles when a wholesale input moves this far this fast.

What Happened

Henry Hub natural gas gave back most of its July gains in three weeks. The August NYMEX prompt-month contract closed at $2.696 on July 28, 2026, its lowest settlement of the month, capping a slide from $3.245 on July 6. The Henry Hub spot price also softened, printing near $2.80 on July 29. Cooling demand held steady while supply stayed comfortable, and traders repriced the tail of the injection season on that combination.

The EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report released July 23, 2026 reinforced the softer tone, showing working gas in storage at 3,056 Bcf for the week ending July 17, with a net injection of 32 Bcf. Underlying spot and storage detail sits on the EIA Henry Hub daily spot page. On the demand side, ERCOT recorded an all-time system peak near 91,308 MW during the July heat wave without triggering an Energy Emergency Alert, a bullish signal for grid resilience that also removes a scarcity premium from the front of the forward curve.

Impact on Commercial Electricity Buyers in Texas

Retail Electric Providers, the REPs that write commercial fixed offers in Texas, hedge on the NYMEX Henry Hub curve and layer on capacity, delivery, and margin. When that curve drops 17 percent in three weeks, we see three channels that reach a commercial account within one to two billing cycles.

Forward pricing. The prompt month sets the tone for the near end of the strip. A move from $3.25 to $2.70 in the front of the curve typically pulls 12 month commercial fixed offers lower first, with 24 and 36 month offers following once the whole strip has repriced.

Term-curve shape. In the plans we track across all five Texas TDU territories, the spread between short-term (roughly 1 to 6 month) and mid to long-term (12 to 48 month) offers has widened as the summer premium came out of the curve. Short-term median rates are running near 12.5 cents per kWh, while mid and long-term medians sit closer to 6.8 to 7.1 cents per kWh. That gap is a signal that the forward market is pricing in a softer 2027, not just a softer next month.

Contract timing. If your current term ends within the next 60 to 90 days, this is the week to start shopping. A move this size in the wholesale input does not always translate into a matching drop on retail sheets, but it is the input REPs use to reset their books, and the shopper who calls first tends to be quoted from the newer curve.

The 10-Day Gas Window Check: Three Questions Before You Sign

Before you accept any Texas commercial fixed-rate offer this week, run it through the same three questions we use when a wholesale input moves this fast, so a softer gas headline does not talk you into a bad lock or scare you out of a good one.

What You Should Do

Turn this gas move into three concrete steps you can take this week, whether your contract renews soon or you are just watching the market for a better entry point.

1. Pull your current Electricity Facts Label (EFL) and note your term end date, your average all-in cents per kWh, and any early termination fee.
2. Request fresh 12, 24, and 36 month quotes for your TDU territory and your monthly kWh so you can see the current term-curve shape for your load.
3. If your term ends within 90 days, act this week: the shopper who calls first tends to be quoted from the newer forward curve, before REPs decide how much of the move to keep as margin.

Questions to Ask Your REP or Broker

When you call a provider this week, these questions separate a genuinely fresh offer from a rate that quietly still leans on the pre-July gas curve.

1. Which forward Henry Hub curve does this quote price off, and when was the underlying hedge last reset?
2. How do your 12, 24, and 36 month offers compare for my meter today, in cents per kWh, all-in?
3. Are TDU delivery charges bundled into the quoted rate or billed separately?
4. What is the early termination fee if I sign now and rates keep falling this quarter?

Frequently Asked Questions

Did Henry Hub natural gas actually fall in July 2026?

Yes. The CME NYMEX Henry Hub August 2026 prompt-month contract closed at $3.245 on July 6, 2026 and $2.696 on July 28, 2026, a decline of about 17 percent. Spot Henry Hub was near $2.80 on July 29, 2026.

Will Texas commercial electricity rates fall now that gas has softened?

Directionally, yes, but not one-for-one. REPs price fixed offers off the forward NYMEX Henry Hub curve plus capacity, delivery, and margin. In the plans we track across all five Texas TDU territories, short-term medians are running near 12.5 cents per kWh and mid to long-term medians near 6.8 to 7.1 cents per kWh. A softer gas curve tends to pull the front of retail sheets first, within one to two billing cycles.

Should a small business lock a fixed rate right now?

It depends on your term end date. If your contract renews within 90 days, shop this week: a wholesale move this size usually reprices commercial fixed offers within one to two billing cycles, and calling early tends to catch the newer quote. If your term still has more than a year, a 24 to 36 month lock in the current mid-term band is one way to bank the softer curve.

Where can I see current commercial rates for my TDU territory?

Our data download covers every commercial plan we track across Oncor, CenterPoint, AEP Texas Central, AEP Texas North, and TNMP, updated daily. You can filter to your TDU and load size to compare the current offers head to head.