TX Commercial Electricity Rates - May 2026

Market Pulse: Rates Ease as Plan Churn Accelerates

Across the 283 commercial electricity plans tracked in our proprietary texascommercialplans.com dataset the week of April 28 through May 4, 2026, the average rate offered to Texas commercial electricity buyers eased 0.7% to roughly 12.05 cents per kWh, down from about 12.13 cents the week prior. The move was driven by sharp softening in four of five TDU territories, with only Oncor showing a slight uptick. Pricing pressure on shorter-term contracts and aggressive new-plan launches from Texas REPs appear to be reshaping the curve, even as ERCOT's latest long-term load forecast signals a structurally tighter market through 2032.

For commercial buyers with renewals coming up in the next 60 to 90 days, this week's data sends a mixed signal: spot offers are softer than they were a month ago, but the macro demand backdrop continues to harden. The window for opportunistic locking on shorter-term products may be widening, while longer-term offers remain priced for the demand growth that's now baked into ERCOT's forward planning.

What's Moving the Market

TotalEnergies signs 1 GW solar PPA with Google for Texas data centers. A 15-year, 28 TWh power purchase agreement to feed Google's Texas data center footprint. For commercial buyers, this is one more datapoint in the broader story of large C&I consumers locking long-dated renewable supply directly with developers, tightening what's left over for the open-market REP channel.
ERCOT files Long-Term Load Forecast projecting 367,000 MW peak demand by 2032. The preliminary 2026 to 2032 forecast filed at the Public Utility Commission of Texas reflects sustained commercial and industrial load growth, much of it tied to data center expansion. Buyers signing 24 to 36 month contracts now are effectively pricing the back end of that growth curve.
Atlas Energy Solutions secures 1.4 GW global framework agreement with Caterpillar. Atlas is positioning natural gas reciprocating generators for behind-the-meter data center deployment. The size of the deal is a useful tell on how acute the distributed power problem has become for hyperscale C&I customers, which has knock-on effects for grid-supplied commercial pricing.

Pricing Trend Analysis

The week's headline number understates the underlying shift. Average rates moved down 0.7% in aggregate, but a same-plan comparison across 63 plans that were live in both weeks tells a more nuanced story: 12 plans raised rates, 10 cut, and 41 held flat, with the average movement among changed plans landing at roughly negative 3.2%. In other words, the REPs that did move pricing this week moved it down decisively, but most of the book sat still.

By contract length, short-term offers (1 to 12 months) dominate the active book at 200 of 283 plans and remain the cheapest segment on average. Mid-term (13 to 24 months) and long-term (25 to 36 months) offers run progressively higher, consistent with REPs pricing in the demand growth implied by ERCOT's load forecast. The premium for locking in 36 months versus 12 months is meaningful and widening.

TDU-level movement was the most striking part of the week. TNMP territory averages dropped 12.2%, CenterPoint dropped 8.4%, AEP Central dropped 7.9%, and AEP North dropped 6.3%. Oncor was the lone outlier, edging up 0.6% week-over-week. Some of the swing in smaller-population TDUs reflects plan-mix changes (149 plans were added and 301 removed across the dataset this week), but the directional signal in CenterPoint and TNMP is consistent enough to suggest genuine softening, not just composition noise.

Our weekly TDU rate trend chart, available in the full data download, shows the gap between Oncor and the other four TDUs widening for the second consecutive week. Buyers in CenterPoint, TNMP, and the AEP territories have meaningfully more leverage right now than buyers in Oncor.

See the full pricing breakdown and plan-level data in our data download.

REP Spotlight: Champion Energy

Champion Energy is a Houston-based retail electric provider that has been active in the Texas deregulated commercial market for roughly two decades. This week's spotlight covers Champion's commercial offering on a publicly observable, directional basis.

Plans tracked this week: 8 commercial plans
Contract term range: 6 to 24 months
TDU coverage: All five Texas competitive TDUs (Oncor, CenterPoint, AEP Central, AEP North, TNMP)
Rate structures: Fixed-rate only
Green energy: 1 of 8 plans includes a renewable component
Market positioning: Generally positions below the broader market average for comparable terms and TDUs

For procurement teams running a multi-territory portfolio, Champion's full-state coverage and tight focus on fixed-rate commercial product makes them a useful comparison anchor when running RFPs across Oncor, CenterPoint, and the AEP territories. Their lack of variable or indexed product means buyers looking for hedged-but-flexible structures will need to layer in other providers.

Get Champion Energy's full plan-level data and rate detail in our data download.

Buyer Intelligence

The combination of softer week-over-week pricing and a hardening long-term demand outlook puts commercial buyers in an unusual position. The opportunistic move for many books is to take advantage of the current short-term softness while holding off on longer-dated commitments until the next ERCOT planning cycle clarifies the data center load trajectory.

Should commercial buyers lock in Texas electricity rates now or wait?

Based on this week's data showing a 0.7% week-over-week decline across 283 tracked plans, commercial buyers with contracts expiring in the next 60 to 90 days have a reasonable window to lock 12-month fixed product in CenterPoint, TNMP, and the AEP territories where same-week declines reached 8% to 12%. Oncor buyers face a tougher call: rates there are essentially flat week-over-week, and the medium-term outlook is biased upward given ERCOT's 367 GW 2032 demand forecast. For 24 to 36 month commitments, the case for waiting through the next two to three weekly cycles is stronger, since long-term offers continue to price in load growth that may or may not be realized at the pace ERCOT projects.

Which Texas TDU territory has the most rate movement right now?

TNMP territory leads with a 12.2% week-over-week drop in the average commercial rate this week, followed by CenterPoint at 8.4% and AEP Central at 7.9%. Oncor is the outlier with rates edging up 0.6%. Some of the movement in smaller-population TDUs reflects plan churn (149 plans added, 301 removed in the past week), so buyers should evaluate offers against the trailing four-week trend rather than a single weekly snapshot before making procurement decisions.

Data Snapshot

Tracked REPs this week: 30
Active commercial plans: 283
Plans added this week: 149
Plans removed this week: 301
Plans with rate changes: 22
Average contract term: 13.1 months
Week-over-week average rate change: -0.7%
TDUs with rates lower week-over-week: 4 of 5 (TNMP, CenterPoint, AEP Central, AEP North)

Full rate data, plan comparisons, and historical trends available in our data download. Prior weekly reports: April 28, 2026, April 21, 2026.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Texas commercial electricity rates change the week of April 28, 2026?

The average commercial electricity rate across 283 tracked plans in Texas eased 0.7% week-over-week, dropping from approximately 12.13 cents per kWh to 12.05 cents per kWh. Four of five TDU territories saw declines, with TNMP showing the largest drop at 12.2%. Only Oncor moved higher, edging up 0.6%.

Which TDU had the most rate movement in Texas commercial electricity this week?

TNMP territory had the largest movement, with the average commercial rate dropping 12.2% week-over-week. CenterPoint followed at 8.4%, AEP Central at 7.9%, and AEP North at 6.3%. Oncor was the only TDU where rates moved higher, increasing 0.6%.

What contract length offers the best value for Texas commercial buyers right now?

Short-term plans (1 to 12 months) currently average about 11.7 cents per kWh across 200 tracked plans, mid-term (13 to 24 months) average 12.6 cents across 55 plans, and long-term (25 to 36 months) average 13.4 cents across 26 plans. The premium for locking in 36 months versus 12 months has widened over the past two weeks as REPs price in ERCOT's projected long-term load growth.