Texas Commercial Electricity Market Report: July 20, 2026
The TxCP Commercial Rate Index reads 10.21 cents per kWh across 660 active commercial plans in the ERCOT market as of July 20, 2026, and the term curve stays inverted with long-term contracts pricing below short-term for the fifth straight weekly snapshot.
Updated weekly. The TxCP Commercial Rate Index (TCRI) sits at 10.21 cents per kWh across 660 active Texas commercial electricity plans tracked in the texascommercialplans.com database as of July 20, 2026, and today's scrape logged the largest single-cycle catalog churn of July so far in the ERCOT retail market: 150 plans added, 23 repriced, and 257 pulled across 27 responding retail electricity providers (REPs). The term curve remains inverted, with long-term contracts pricing below short-term across every ERCOT TDU we cover.
Market Pulse
This week's headline is churn, not price. The TCRI is anchored at 10.21 cents per kWh, but underneath it the plan catalog turned over aggressively: 257 plans left the active market in one scrape cycle while 150 new ones went live, a net contraction of roughly 16 percent on top of what was already the third straight week of triple-digit removals. That level of REP repositioning almost always precedes a directional move in the term-specific bands, and buyers with contracts expiring in the next 45 days should treat quotes older than 7 days as stale.
What's Moving the Market
Five external stories shaped commercial pricing this week. Together they add short-term peak risk, a modest gas-price tailwind, and continued regulatory pressure on data-center-driven capacity buildout.
- ERCOT set a new July peak above 83,000 MW. The first July print over that threshold in 2026 lifts real-time and time-of-use exposure for any commercial buyer without shoulder-hour flexibility. ERCOT load history confirms the peak curve is running hot into late July.
- ERCOT issued a July 13 conservation appeal. The grid operator asked commercial and industrial load to shed voluntarily during afternoon and early-evening hours. Buyers with any indexed or block-and-index exposure should model a repeat of this appeal into their August budget. ERCOT news releases.
- PUCT scheduled a July 20 workshop on Texas Energy Fund procurement. The workshop covers vendor selection for the next tranche of TEF-backed dispatchable generation, which shapes 2027 to 2029 capacity assumptions that already sit inside long-term REP hedges. PUCT Texas Energy Fund page.
- EIA reported Henry Hub around 3.62 dollars per MMBtu. The moderating gas price caps upside on gas-fired marginal wholesale prints and is one of the reasons short-term retail bands compressed relative to June. EIA Henry Hub history.
- New Texas gas-plant financing plus data center growth pull in opposite directions. Utility Dive's coverage of TEF-backed loans and ongoing large-load buildouts shows dispatchable supply arriving on a longer timeline than the new demand it is meant to serve. Utility Dive coverage.
Pricing Trend Analysis
Aggregate pricing across our 660-plan catalog shows two clear structural signals: a persistent term-curve inversion where long-term commercial contracts average less than short-term, and a wide TDU-territory spread that puts CenterPoint plans nearly 2 cents below TNMP plans on average. Directionally, mid and long-term bands are compressed and stable, while short-term bands remain the widest and most volatile.
| As of Date | Segment | Plan Count | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Short Term (1 to 6 mo) | 448 | 4.42 cents | 11.90 cents | 20.20 cents |
| 2026-07-20 | Mid Term (7 to 18 mo) | 87 | 6.39 cents | 6.91 cents | 14.49 cents |
| 2026-07-20 | Long Term (19 to 36 mo) | 57 | 6.34 cents | 7.11 cents | 19.50 cents |
| 2026-07-20 | CenterPoint TDU | 162 | 4.65 cents | 7.72 cents | 18.50 cents |
| 2026-07-20 | AEP Central TDU | 126 | 4.65 cents | 8.00 cents | 19.10 cents |
| 2026-07-20 | Oncor TDU | 151 | 4.42 cents | 9.25 cents | 18.60 cents |
| 2026-07-20 | AEP North TDU | 110 | 4.65 cents | 9.40 cents | 18.90 cents |
| 2026-07-20 | TNMP | 111 | 4.65 cents | 11.85 cents | 20.20 cents |
See the full pricing breakdown, per-plan detail, and historical trend lines in our data download.
REP Spotlight: INFUSE ENERGY
Infuse Energy carries the broadest single-provider footprint in our tracked catalog this week with 53 active commercial plans priced at market on aggregate. The provider spans all five TDU territories (Oncor, CenterPoint, AEP Central, AEP North, and TNMP) and offers contract terms from 1 to 24 months, which puts it in the small group of Texas REPs that lets a multi-site commercial buyer standardize under one paper across regional footprints.
Publicly, Infuse markets a mix of standard commercial and renewable-blend product tiers, positions its EFL against fixed all-in delivered pricing, and does not use base fees as its primary differentiator. For a Texas commercial buyer with sites in multiple TDU zones, Infuse's footprint reduces the coordination cost of running separate quotes per site, though the term-length band and the aggregate market position mean buyers should still compare against sibling REPs in each specific TDU before signing.
Get this provider's full plan data, including current term-specific rate distribution and EFL links, in our data download.
Buyer Intelligence
Two questions dominated buyer conversations this week: how to read the term-curve inversion, and how to sequence a contract renewal against the ERCOT summer peak window. Our reading of the aggregate data plus this week's news flow answers each directly below.
Should Texas commercial buyers lock in a long-term contract with the term curve inverted?
Based on this week's TxCP data, buyers whose contracts expire inside 120 days and whose load profile is stable should seriously evaluate 24 to 36 month terms right now. The long-term band averages 7.87 cents per kWh vs 11.26 cents for short-term across the 660 tracked plans, and the inversion has now held for five straight weekly snapshots. That is a durable signal, not a one-week quirk.
How should a commercial buyer sequence a renewal against ERCOT's summer peak window?
Do not renew during a conservation appeal week. This week's ERCOT appeal on July 13 sat inside the exact period when REP pricing desks reprice most aggressively, and it usually widens short-term quotes for the next 3 to 5 business days. A buyer with a July or early-August contract expiration should ask their REP to hold quotes for at least 5 business days beyond any conservation event and should not compare quotes issued across an appeal.
Data Snapshot
- Tracked REPs: 32 active Texas retail electricity providers in our commercial catalog.
- Active commercial plans: 660 across all five ERCOT TDU territories.
- Plans added this week: 150 new commercial plans logged in the July 20, 2026 scrape.
- Plans with rate changes: 23 repriced plans in the same scrape cycle.
- Plans removed this week: 257 plans pulled from active inventory in one cycle, the largest single-day removal count of July 2026.
- Average contract term: 14.7 months across the tracked plan set.
- TCRI (market average rate): 10.21 cents per kWh, blended across all TDUs and terms.
- TDU rate band spread: 1.65 cents between CenterPoint's 9.57 average and TNMP's 11.23 average.
Full rate data, per-plan comparisons, and historical trend lines are available in our data download. See our prior 2026 commercial rates data guide for the methodology behind these bands, and our June ERCOT and data center rate analysis for the prior weekly snapshot.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the average Texas commercial electricity rate as of July 20, 2026?
The TxCP Commercial Rate Index (TCRI) averages 10.21 cents per kWh across 660 active commercial plans tracked in the texascommercialplans.com database on July 20, 2026. That aggregate figure spans all five ERCOT TDU territories and blends short, mid, and long term contract lengths, so a like-for-like comparison for one buyer's own load will land inside a narrower TDU-specific band.
Why are long-term Texas commercial electricity contracts pricing below short-term this week?
The 57 long-term plans in our catalog average 7.87 cents per kWh while the 448 short-term plans average 11.26 cents, a persistent inversion of the normal term curve. The gap reflects retail hedging against summer peak volatility on the short end plus retailer competition for multi-year commercial book on the long end, and it has held for five weekly snapshots since June.
Which Texas TDU territory has the lowest average commercial electricity rate right now?
CenterPoint carries the lowest average across the 162 commercial plans we track in its footprint at 9.57 cents per kWh, followed by AEP Central at 10.05 cents and Oncor at 10.14 cents. TNMP tops the list at 11.23 cents, which is a familiar pattern rooted in TNMP's smaller retail participation and higher delivery cost recovery.