Texas Commercial Electricity Rates, September 28 2026: TCRI Holds at 7.17 Cents/kWh as a 207 MW Data Center Deal Targets 2027
The TxCP Commercial Rate Index held at 7.17 cents per kWh across 11,375 tracked plans on September 28, 2026, and every TDU median moved 0.04 cents or less. The week's demand-side story is a 20-year, 207 MW gas supply deal for a Permian Basin data center that starts in 2027.
Bottom line: The TxCP Commercial Rate Index (TCRI) from the texascommercialplans.com database sat at 7.17 cents per kWh across 11,375 tracked Texas commercial electricity plans in the ERCOT deregulated market as of September 28, 2026, 0.03 cents below the 7.20 cents we reported on September 21. Median rates in all five TDU territories moved by 0.04 cents or less, so the honest read this week is flat. The demand-side headline is a 20-year agreement to supply up to 207 MW from an existing Odessa gas plant to a Permian Basin data center starting in the third quarter of 2027. Updated weekly.
Market Pulse
Across the 11,375 commercial electricity plans we track in the texascommercialplans.com database as of September 28, 2026, the TxCP Commercial Rate Index held essentially flat at 7.17 cents per kWh, against 7.20 cents on September 21. Medians confirm it: Oncor sits at 6.39 cents, AEP North at 6.49, AEP Central at 6.61, CenterPoint at 6.51 and TNMP at 6.47, and none moved more than 0.04 cents in a week.
The catalog grew about 11 percent, from 10,233 to 11,375 active plans, with 315 new plans and a refreshed rate signal on 8,555 plans, three quarters of the catalog. Medians that barely move while that many plans refresh tell us the refresh is mostly a catalog re-read, not REPs repricing, and a larger catalog can shift an average through mix alone. That is why we lead with medians this week.
What Moved This Week and Why It Matters
The most consequential development for Texas commercial buyers this week is a 20-year power purchase agreement, announced September 21, 2026, that commits up to 207 MW from an existing West Texas gas plant to a single data center beginning in the third quarter of 2027. It adds large new demand without adding a megawatt of new supply, and it starts inside the delivery window of the 24-month fixed rates being quoted to small businesses right now.
What Happened
New Era Energy & Digital said on September 21 that its subsidiary, TCDC PowerCo LLC, signed a 20-year PPA with Luminant ET Services Company, a Vistra affiliate, for 200 MW to 207 MW to serve Phase 1 of its Texas Critical Data Center near Odessa (company announcement). The supply comes from Vistra's adjacent 1,180 MW natural gas plant in Odessa, with firm delivery expected in the third quarter of 2027. No price was disclosed. The 493-acre campus is planned to reach 1.4 GW over time, and large loads like it now move through the batch interconnection process ERCOT runs under rules the PUCT approved in June (ERCOT).
Impact on Texas Commercial Buyers
Contract price. Up to 207 MW is about 17.5 percent of that plant's capacity, committed to one customer for 20 years. The plant already sells into ERCOT, so this is new demand met by existing supply. One deal does not move a statewide curve on its own, but a steady run of them supports the 2027 and 2028 forward prices that fixed commercial offers are built on.
Contract timing. A 12-month contract signed this fall ends before this supply starts, and a 24-month contract runs well past it. On medians, stepping from our short-term band to the 13 to 24 month band costs 0.19 cents per kWh this week, about 3 percent.
Budget. Who pays for the wires serving large loads is still open. The PUCT rules by October 19 on a behind-the-meter data center case that affects how transmission costs are shared (our Docket 59115 briefing). Those costs reach a business through TDU delivery charges, which many commercial fixed-rate contracts pass through at cost.
The Mid-2027 Test: Four Questions Before You Sign
- Where does your term end? Before July 2027, or after it, when this and other contracted data center loads are scheduled to come online.
- Is delivery bundled or passed through? A fixed energy price with TDU charges passed through at cost still moves when delivery riders move.
- What can pass through mid-term? Ask which regulatory changes the change-in-law clause covers, and whether PUCT large-load or transmission decisions would qualify.
- What does the extra term cost? Price both options against the medians in our pricing table below.
What You Should Do This Week
- Find your contract end date and renewal notice deadline, and set a reminder 90 days before the end date.
- Ask the same REP for a term ending by June 2027 and a 24-month term, then compare both with this week's medians of 6.01 cents (short-term) and 6.20 cents (13 to 24 months).
- If you are a CenterPoint customer, check the first bill after September 30 for the higher DCRF delivery rider.
- Get any change-in-law clause in writing before you sign.
Questions to ask your REP or broker:
- Does this fixed price include TDU delivery charges, or are they passed through?
- Which regulatory changes can you pass through during the term?
- What would six or twelve more months cost on this quote?
Also moving
- The PUCT adopted softer large-load rules than it proposed. According to Utility Dive on September 21, the final rule in Project 58481 drops the proposed non-refundable fee of $50,000 per MW, sets a flat $100,000 study fee, and extends the grace period on missed energization schedules from six to 24 months (PUCT filings). A cheaper entry ticket likely keeps more speculative requests in a queue Utility Dive puts at 474 GW, and that queue feeds the load forecasts behind long-dated prices.
- Texas paused data center environmental permits on September 21, the same day the Odessa deal was announced. The Governor directed TCEQ to stop issuing data center permits while ERCOT, the PUCT and the Texas Water Development Board review power and water impacts (directive). We covered the rate read-through in our September 23 briefing. Projects with permits already in hand are still locking supply.
- CenterPoint's DCRF delivery rider steps up on September 30. Under PUCT Docket 59981, Primary Service sees a 34.6 percent rider increase against 24.1 percent for residential, per our September 25 rate table. Houston-area businesses on pass-through delivery pricing will see it regardless of the energy rate they locked.
Pricing Trend Analysis
Texas commercial electricity pricing held its shape this week across our tracked plans as of September 28, 2026: TDU medians sit in a narrow band from 6.39 to 6.61 cents, and the spread between the cheapest and most expensive territory narrowed to 3.4 percent, from 3.8 percent on September 21.
By territory, Oncor holds the lowest median at 6.39 cents per kWh and the lowest average at 7.04 cents, while AEP Central carries the highest median at 6.61 cents and CenterPoint the highest average at 7.24 cents. At the low end, the floor in Oncor and CenterPoint fell below last week's 4.0 cent mark, while the floor in AEP North, AEP Central and TNMP rose to 4.3 cents. A handful of plans set each floor, so treat the median as the benchmark for a quote.
| Date | TDU territory | Plans | Low | Median | Median on 2026-09-21 | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Oncor | 2,617 | $0.0351 | $0.0639 | $0.0638 | $0.2526 |
| 2026-09-28 | AEP North | 1,995 | $0.0430 | $0.0649 | $0.0645 | $0.2533 |
| 2026-09-28 | AEP Central | 2,372 | $0.0430 | $0.0661 | $0.0662 | $0.2574 |
| 2026-09-28 | CenterPoint | 2,175 | $0.0375 | $0.0651 | $0.0653 | $0.2390 |
| 2026-09-28 | TNMP | 2,216 | $0.0430 | $0.0647 | $0.0646 | $0.2612 |
| Date | Contract term | Plans | Low | Median | Average | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Short-term (1 to 12 months) | 4,357 | $0.0351 | $0.0601 | $0.0779 | $0.2612 |
| 2026-09-28 | Mid-term (13 to 24 months) | 2,870 | $0.0440 | $0.0620 | $0.0645 | $0.1609 |
| 2026-09-28 | Long-term (25 months and up) | 1,519 | $0.0440 | $0.0660 | $0.0687 | $0.1390 |
The term view covers the 8,746 plans with a stated contract length. Short-term plans carry both the lowest median (6.01 cents) and the highest average (7.79 cents), because a tail of short-term offers priced as high as 26 cents pulls the average up. Mid-term plans average 6.45 cents with a median of 6.20, and long-term plans average 6.87 cents with a median of 6.60, so locking beyond 24 months costs about 0.40 cents more than the mid-term median this week. All figures are aggregate values across every plan in the TxCP catalog for each segment. See the full pricing breakdown in our data download.
Want the full spreadsheet? Every tracked commercial plan, every REP, every TDU territory, refreshed twice a day and delivered as a CSV for $10. Browse current rates or download today's snapshot.
REP Spotlight: Frontier Utilities
Frontier Utilities is a Houston-based retail electric provider that operates in Texas under PUCT certificate 10169, held by Retail Energy Solutions LLC according to the PUCT REP directory. It lists 47 active commercial plans in our catalog this week, with contract terms from 3 to 24 months.
Its commercial lineup in our data covers three of the five ERCOT deregulated TDU territories: CenterPoint, Oncor and TNMP. It does not currently list commercial plans in AEP North or AEP Central in our catalog. Directionally, its plans sit above the market average across the plans we track, so the case for this provider rests on short-term flexibility and coverage in the Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth areas rather than headline price.
One point ties back to this week's lead story: the longest term in this provider's current commercial lineup is 24 months, so a buyer who wants to lock a price beyond fall 2028 will not find that option here today. Get this provider's full plan data in our data download.
Buyer Intelligence
Texas small business shoppers quoting a fixed rate this week face a market that did not move, which is useful in itself: a quote that looks higher than last week's is more likely about your usage profile, term or TDU than about the market. Two numbers settle most decisions. The 13 to 24 month median is 6.20 cents, only 0.19 cents above the short-term median, and the Houston to Dallas gap on medians narrowed to 1.9 percent (CenterPoint 6.51 cents against Oncor 6.39 cents), from 2.4 percent a week ago.
Should a Texas business sign a commercial electricity contract that runs past mid-2027?
Based on this week's data across the 11,375 plans we track, extending into mid-term costs little: the 13 to 24 month median is 6.20 cents per kWh against 6.01 cents for short-term plans. With data center supply deals like the 207 MW Odessa agreement scheduled to start in the third quarter of 2027, a quote that locks through that window is worth comparing side by side with one that ends before it. Cross-check the wider context against EIA wholesale market data before committing.
Did Texas commercial electricity rates go up this week?
No. The TxCP Commercial Rate Index eased 0.03 cents to 7.17 cents per kWh between September 21 and September 28, 2026, and the median in each of the five TDU territories moved by 0.04 cents or less. The bigger change was the size of the catalog, not prices.
Data Snapshot
Our September 28, 2026 snapshot spans 29 retail electric providers and 11,375 active commercial plans across all five ERCOT deregulated TDU territories, with the TxCP Commercial Rate Index at 7.17 cents per kWh and every TDU median within 0.04 cents of its September 21 level.
- Tracked REPs: 29 retail electric providers with active commercial plans.
- Active commercial plans: 11,375, up from 10,233 on September 21.
- Plans added this week: 315.
- Plans with rate signals refreshed this week: 8,555, or 75 percent of the catalog (a refresh signal, not a like-for-like reprice).
- Average contract term: 23.9 months across tracked plans.
- Market average rate (TCRI): 7.17 cents per kWh, versus 7.20 cents on September 21.
- Lowest TDU median: Oncor at 6.39 cents per kWh. Highest: AEP Central at 6.61 cents per kWh.
- Cheapest term band: short-term on medians (6.01 cents per kWh), 13 to 24 months on averages (6.45 cents per kWh).
Full rate data, plan comparisons, and historical trends are available in our data download. For last week's baseline, see our September 21 weekly report.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the average Texas commercial electricity rate in late September 2026?
The TxCP Commercial Rate Index sits at 7.17 cents per kWh across 11,375 tracked commercial plans as of September 28, 2026, compared with 7.20 cents on September 21. Medians by TDU territory range from 6.39 cents in Oncor to 6.61 cents in AEP Central.
When does the 207 MW Odessa data center power deal start?
Firm supply of up to 207 MW is expected in the third quarter of 2027 under a 20-year agreement announced September 21, 2026, sourced from an existing 1,180 MW gas plant next to the site. Because it serves new demand from existing supply, it matters most for fixed commercial contracts that run past mid-2027.
Did the PUCT adopt a $50,000 per MW fee for large loads like data centers?
No. The final large-load interconnection rule in PUCT Project 58481, reported by Utility Dive on September 21, 2026, dropped the proposed non-refundable fee of $50,000 per MW and set a flat $100,000 study fee for every large load customer.