TX Commercial Rates Fall 9.3% | May 2026

Market Pulse: Rates Drop 9.3% as All Five TDUs Post Double-Digit Declines

Across the 304 commercial electricity plans tracked in our proprietary texascommercialplans.com dataset the week of May 12 through May 18, 2026, the average rate offered to Texas commercial electricity buyers fell 9.3% to roughly 11.43 cents per kWh, down from about 12.60 cents the week prior. The drop was broad-based: every one of the five competitive TDU territories posted a double-digit decline, with AEP North leading at negative 20.0% and TNMP close behind at negative 18.9%. Texas REPs also pushed an unusually large volume of plan changes through the book this week, with 364 plans pulled and 131 launched against the backdrop of ERCOT's shifting generation mix.

For commercial buyers with contracts rolling in the next 30 to 90 days, this week's data is the clearest opening of 2026. The rate curve has also inverted: long-term offers (25 to 36 months) now price lower on average than short-term offers, an unusual signal that REPs are pricing softer forward power for businesses willing to lock the back end of the year. Buyers who have been waiting for a re-pricing window now have one to act on.

What's Moving the Market

EIA forecasts ERCOT solar generation will exceed coal for the first time in 2026. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's latest Short-Term Energy Outlook projects roughly 78 billion kWh from utility-scale solar versus 60 billion kWh from coal inside the ERCOT footprint this year. Solar's share of ERCOT generation rose from 4% to 12% between 2021 and 2025. For commercial buyers, the practical implication is more midday supply and continued downward pressure on daytime wholesale pricing, which is consistent with this week's spot softening in the retail book.
Major parties reach settlement in CenterPoint Houston Electric DCRF case. Major parties in the Public Utility Commission of Texas proceeding over CenterPoint Energy Houston Electric's Distribution Cost Recovery Factor have reached a settlement establishing new Rider DCRF rates. Because the DCRF is billed to REPs and passed through to retail customers, the outcome will flow into commercial pricing in the CenterPoint service territory. Buyers signing CenterPoint contracts in the next few weeks should ask whether the proposed DCRF is reflected in the quoted rate or will be added as a pass-through later.
Texas grid-scale battery storage credited with $750 million in 2024 energy cost reductions. Policy analysis attributes roughly $750 million in market-wide energy cost reductions in 2024 to Texas battery storage additions, with batteries easing peak pricing pressure. For C&I customers facing 4CP exposure or ancillary service charges, the continued buildout of battery capacity is the structural force most likely to dampen the kind of summer price spikes that have driven the last three years of pass-through volatility.
NRG and Renew Home advance 1 GW Texas virtual power plant partnership. NRG and Renew Home announced a partnership targeting 1 gigawatt of virtual power plant capacity in Texas by 2035, anchored on smart thermostat aggregation. NRG has reached 150 MW as of 2025. For commercial sites with controllable load, the expansion of REP-led demand response programs is a credit on the procurement side that should be priced into any new contract, not treated as a separate aftermarket conversation.

Pricing Trend Analysis

The headline 9.3% drop understates how broad the move was. A same-plan comparison across 74 plans that were live in both weeks shows 13 plans cut rates, 11 raised them, and 50 held flat, with the average movement among changed plans landing around negative 6.3%. The signal is not that every REP repriced; it is that the REPs that did reprice cut decisively, and a few outsized cuts on Fixed Price products in Oncor, CenterPoint, AEP North, and TNMP territories pulled the averages down sharply.

The most notable structural shift this week is at the term curve. Short-term offers (1 to 12 months) currently average about 11.75 cents per kWh across 213 plans, mid-term (13 to 24 months) average 11.18 cents across 64 plans, and long-term (25 to 36 months) average 10.16 cents across 20 plans. The long end is now meaningfully cheaper than the short end, an inversion that typically signals REPs see softer forward power than current near-term cover. Commercial buyers comfortable with the credit and counterparty side of a 24 to 36 month commitment have an opening this week that did not exist a month ago.

TDU-level movement was synchronized in a way the dataset rarely shows. AEP North dropped 20.0% week-over-week, TNMP dropped 18.9%, AEP Central dropped 14.1%, CenterPoint dropped 11.0%, and Oncor dropped 10.6%. Some of that movement reflects plan-mix churn (364 plans removed against 131 added is a notably high turnover week), but the directional signal across every TDU at once is consistent enough to call this a genuine market reset rather than composition noise.

Our weekly TDU rate trend chart, available in the full data download, shows the convergence between the historically more expensive territories (AEP North, TNMP) and the larger urban TDUs (Oncor, CenterPoint) is the tightest it has been in four weeks. Buyers running multi-territory portfolios should expect tighter spreads in this week's quoted RFPs.

See the full pricing breakdown and plan-level data in our data download.

REP Spotlight: Constellation Energy

Constellation Energy is one of the largest competitive generation and retail energy providers in the United States and has been an active commercial provider in the Texas deregulated market for over a decade. This week's spotlight covers Constellation's commercial offering on a publicly observable, directional basis.

Plans tracked this week: 14 commercial plans
Contract term range: 1 to 12 months
TDU coverage: All five Texas competitive TDUs (Oncor, CenterPoint, AEP Central, AEP North, TNMP)
Rate structures: Fixed and variable
Green energy: 5 of 14 plans include a renewable component
Market positioning: Generally positions above the broader market average for comparable terms and TDUs

Constellation's value to commercial procurement teams is its national balance sheet and operational scale, which translate into deeper credit capacity, more flexible product structures (including indexed and hybrid offerings), and the ability to support load aggregation across multi-site portfolios. Buyers who weight counterparty credit and the option to layer in indexed or block-and-index structures should treat Constellation as a useful comparison anchor, even though the spot fixed-rate quote is unlikely to be the lowest in the room. With every plan capped at 12 months, Constellation's current Texas book also skews short-term, so buyers seeking 24 to 36 month commercial product will need to pair them with longer-dated providers.

Get Constellation Energy's full plan-level data and rate detail in our data download.

Buyer Intelligence

This is the most actionable week for Texas commercial electricity buyers in 2026 so far. The combination of a 9.3% aggregate drop, broad-based TDU softening, and an inverted term curve all point in the same direction: re-evaluate any pending RFP, ask incumbents to refresh quotes, and pull forward renewals sitting in a 60 to 90 day window before the next news cycle resets the floor.

Should Texas commercial buyers lock in rates now or wait?

Based on this week's data showing a 9.3% week-over-week drop across 304 tracked plans and double-digit declines in every TDU territory, commercial buyers with contracts expiring in the next 30 to 90 days should accelerate their procurement timeline rather than wait for further softening. The term curve has inverted, with long-term offers (25 to 36 months) now averaging about 10.16 cents per kWh versus 11.75 cents for short-term (1 to 12 months), which means buyers comfortable with longer commitments can lock the lowest rates in the market right now. The opportunistic move is to take refreshed quotes from at least three providers this week and compare 12, 24, and 36 month options side by side before the next macro event resets the curve.

Which Texas TDU territory has the most rate movement right now?

AEP North led the week with a 20.0% week-over-week drop in the average commercial rate, followed by TNMP at 18.9%, AEP Central at 14.1%, CenterPoint at 11.0%, and Oncor at 10.6%. All five competitive TDU territories posted double-digit declines, which is unusual: most weekly cycles show divergence between the urban TDUs (Oncor, CenterPoint) and the smaller-population territories (AEP, TNMP). Some of the AEP North and TNMP movement reflects plan-mix churn (364 plans removed and 131 added across the dataset this week), so buyers should evaluate offers against the trailing four-week trend before signing.

Data Snapshot

Tracked REPs this week: 30
Active commercial plans: 304
Plans added this week: 131
Plans removed this week: 364
Plans with rate changes: 24
Average contract term: 13.0 months
Week-over-week average rate change: -9.3%
TDUs with rates lower week-over-week: 5 of 5 (AEP North, TNMP, AEP Central, CenterPoint, Oncor)

Full rate data, plan comparisons, and historical trends available in our data download. Prior weekly reports: May 5, 2026, April 28, 2026.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Texas commercial electricity rates change the week of May 12, 2026?

The average commercial electricity rate across 304 tracked plans in Texas fell 9.3% week-over-week, dropping from approximately 12.60 cents per kWh to 11.43 cents per kWh. All five competitive TDU territories posted double-digit declines, with AEP North leading at negative 20.0% and TNMP at negative 18.9%. A same-plan comparison across 74 plans live in both weeks shows the REPs that repriced cut decisively, with an average movement of negative 6.3% on changed plans.

Why are long-term Texas commercial electricity contracts cheaper than short-term right now?

Long-term offers (25 to 36 months) currently average about 10.16 cents per kWh across 20 tracked plans, while short-term offers (1 to 12 months) average 11.75 cents across 213 plans. This inversion reflects REPs pricing softer forward wholesale power, partly tied to the projected generation mix shift in ERCOT (where the EIA forecasts solar generation to exceed coal for the first time in 2026). Buyers comfortable with longer commitments can lock the lowest rates in the active commercial book this week.

How did the EIA solar versus coal ERCOT forecast affect Texas commercial rates this week?

The EIA's latest Short-Term Energy Outlook projects ERCOT solar generation of approximately 78 billion kWh in 2026 versus 60 billion kWh for coal, the first time solar has been forecast to outpace coal inside the Texas grid. The retail market response was a synchronized rate softening across all five TDU territories this week, consistent with REPs pricing in cheaper midday wholesale supply. The directional impact is most visible at the long end of the term curve, where 25 to 36 month offers fell below short-term offers in the active book.