Mid-Term Beats Short | TX Commercial Electricity - Aug 2026

Market Pulse: Texas Commercial Electricity Rates, August 2026

Across the 1,000 commercial plans tracked in the texascommercialplans.com database this week (August 18 through August 24, 2026), Texas commercial electricity rates averaged 7.74 cents per kWh, with a median of 6.71 cents. The more useful signal sits underneath that average: mid-term contracts of 13 to 24 months priced roughly 2.2 cents per kWh below short-term contracts of 1 to 12 months, an inversion of the term structure most commercial buyers expect to see.

Repricing activity was light. Of the 41 plans that could be matched against last week across the 29 Texas REPs in the dataset, 29 held their rate unchanged, 6 moved higher and 6 moved lower. For a buyer with a contract expiring this fall, that combination (a quiet week and a cheap mid-term segment) is the actionable part, not the headline average. ERCOT news flow this week centered on data center interconnection and West Texas transmission, both of which sit on the forward curve rather than in the offers on your desk today.

What's Moving the Market

ERCOT expects to finish the data center interconnection audit by December. ERCOT said it plans to complete its review of the governor's paused large-load interconnection requests by year end, according to Houston Public Media. The audit's outcome determines when a large block of new demand actually lands on the grid, which feeds forward demand forecasts and 2027 to 2028 fixed pricing. It does not move the offers available for a contract starting this quarter.
ENGIE and QTS signed a 48 MWac solar PPA covering Irving data center operations. The agreement is tied to ABEI Energy's Lubio Solar project in Kaufman County, expected to generate roughly 150 GWh annually, as reported by Construction Owners and PV Tech. For buyers carrying both a renewable mandate and load large enough to interest a generator directly, this is the structure to study. Corporate PPAs are how the largest Texas loads are now securing price certainty and renewable attributes in one instrument.
Transmission constraints in West Texas remain an open reliability question. Testimony before the House State Affairs Committee on data centers and 765 kV transmission notes ERCOT is managing close to 2,000 energization requests, roughly 90 percent of them tied to data centers. Congestion reaches a commercial bill through TDU delivery charges and, for index products, through basis risk. Fixed-rate buyers are insulated for the length of their term. Block-and-index and fully indexed buyers are not.
Peak demand forecasts keep climbing. Coverage of the ENGIE transaction places it against ERCOT projections that peak demand could approach a near doubling by 2032, with data centers the dominant driver (Now Solar). Load growth of that shape is the strongest available argument for extending contract term where risk tolerance and budget certainty allow it.

Pricing Trend Analysis

The defining feature of the current market is an inverted front end. Mid-term plans in the 13 to 24 month band, covering 236 of the tracked plans, carried the lowest segment average this week. Long-term plans of 25 to 36 months, covering 122 plans, sat roughly 0.4 cents per kWh above them. Short-term plans of 1 to 12 months, the largest segment at 400 plans, sat about 2.2 cents above the mid-term average. The cheapest money on the board is in the middle of the curve, not at either end.

That premium is not a one-week artifact. The short-term premium over mid-term contracts has held above 2 cents per kWh for five consecutive weeks, though it has narrowed steadily over the last three as short-term offers came down. Our term-structure chart shows the gap compressing from above 5 cents in mid-August toward the current 2.2 cents.

Repricing was narrow and two-sided. Twelve plans changed rate this week, and among the plans that could be matched week over week the split was even: 6 higher, 6 lower, 29 unchanged. Two plans left the market entirely, both month-to-month variable products, which is the usual pattern when REPs prune the short end of their book.

One outlier is worth flagging without reading too much into it. A single 24-month commercial product family repriced sharply upward across three TDU territories at once, more than doubling its prior rate. That is a product decision rather than a market movement, but it is a useful reminder that an incumbent's renewal quote is not a market price and should not be treated as one.

Across territories, CenterPoint carried the highest average rate of the five Texas TDU zones this week and also the highest floor, meaning even its cheapest available offers started above the other territories. Oncor carried the lowest territory average but the widest spread between its cheapest and most expensive commercial offers, close to 14.5 cents per kWh. A wide spread is the clearest signal that shopping effort converts into savings, because the penalty for accepting the first quote is largest where offers are most dispersed.

See the full pricing breakdown in our data download.

REP Spotlight: Pennywise Power

Pennywise Power appears in this week's dataset with 10 commercial plans spanning contract terms from 12 to 36 months. The provider serves four of the five Texas TDU territories: AEP Central, CenterPoint, Oncor and TNMP. AEP North is the gap in its footprint.

Two structural features stand out. Every plan in its commercial book is fixed rate, with no variable or indexed products offered, and all 10 carry renewable energy content. On pricing, the provider positions above the market average rather than competing at the low end.

The practical read is that this is a differentiated product play rather than a price play. A buyer with a corporate renewable commitment and sites spread across most of the state gets single-vendor coverage and rate certainty in one place, which has real administrative value for multi-site portfolios. A buyer optimizing purely on cents per kWh will find cheaper options elsewhere in the market. Both are legitimate procurement strategies, and the choice depends on whether renewable attributes and vendor consolidation carry budget weight in your organization.

Get this REP's full plan data in our data download.

Buyer Intelligence

Two conditions define the decision this week. Repricing is quiet, so there is little cost to taking a few days to run a proper comparison, and equally little reason to expect a materially better number next Tuesday. And the mid-term band is priced below both ends of the curve, which means the default assumption that longer term equals higher price does not hold in the current market. If your renewal conversation has been framed around 12 months versus 36 months, the 18 to 24 month range deserves a quote before you decide.

The second point concerns process rather than timing. This week produced a single product that more than doubled in price across three territories simultaneously. Nothing in the market moved to justify that, which tells you the renewal offer a commercial customer receives is set by the provider's book, not by the market. Benchmark every renewal against a live comparison before signing, particularly if the offer arrives without a competing quote alongside it. Our report from the prior week showed repricing skewing broadly higher, so the two-sided split this week is a genuine change in tone rather than a continuation.

What are current Texas commercial electricity rates?

For the week of August 18 to 24, 2026, Texas commercial electricity plans in the texascommercialplans.com database averaged 7.74 cents per kWh, with a median of 6.71 cents and a range spanning 4.65 to 19.1 cents across 1,000 tracked plans and 29 Texas REPs. The median sits more than a cent below the average because a small number of high-priced variable and month-to-month products pull the mean upward. Buyers benchmarking an offer should compare against the median, not the average, since the average overstates what a competitive fixed-rate commercial contract actually costs.

Should commercial buyers lock in rates now or wait?

Buyers with contracts expiring in the next 60 to 90 days should solicit quotes now and weight the 13 to 24 month band in that request. This week's data shows mid-term contracts averaging roughly 2.2 cents per kWh below short-term contracts, and only 12 of the tracked plans repriced at all, so waiting a week is unlikely to improve the number in front of you. The argument for waiting weakens further against ERCOT load-growth forecasts that point higher through 2027 and beyond.

Data Snapshot

Tracked Texas REPs this week: 29
Commercial plans tracked: 1,000
Plans with rate changes: 12
Plans removed this week: 2 (both month-to-month variable)
Plans matched week over week: 41 (29 unchanged, 6 higher, 6 lower)
Average contract term: 23.5 months
Market average rate: 7.74 cents per kWh (median 6.71 cents)
Rate range across tracked plans: 4.65 to 19.1 cents per kWh

Full rate data, plan comparisons, and historical trends are available in our data download. Prior editions are indexed under Weekly Market Insights, and shorter daily updates run in Daily Market News.

Frequently Asked Questions

What contract length offers the best value for Texas commercial buyers right now?

The 13 to 24 month band. During the week of August 18 to 24, 2026, mid-term contracts averaged roughly 2.2 cents per kWh less than 1 to 12 month contracts and about 0.4 cents less than 25 to 36 month contracts across the plans tracked. That makes the middle of the curve the cheapest place to sit for buyers who do not require maximum term certainty. We covered the same short-term versus mid-term spread in July, and it has persisted since.

Which TDU territory had the widest rate movement this week?

Oncor showed the widest dispersion, with close to 14.5 cents per kWh separating its cheapest and most expensive commercial offers, despite carrying the lowest territory average of the five Texas TDU zones. CenterPoint carried the highest territory average and the highest entry point, meaning its least expensive offers still started above the other territories. A wide spread matters more than a low average, because it determines how much a buyer gains from shopping rather than renewing.

How is ERCOT data center growth affecting Texas commercial electricity rates?

Very little in this week's offers, but materially in forward pricing. ERCOT is processing close to 2,000 energization requests with roughly 90 percent tied to data centers, and expects to complete its audit of paused large-load interconnections by December. That demand is priced into 2027 and 2028 fixed offers far more than into contracts starting this fall, which is why the near-term market can stay quiet while the multi-year outlook moves.