Texas Commercial Electricity Rates September 2026: Repricing Turns Two-Way

Market Pulse

Across the 1,000 commercial plans tracked in the texascommercialplans.com database this week (September 1 through September 7, 2026), 10 plans repriced and the direction turned two-way. Among the largest of those moves, three went higher and three went lower, a shift from last week when every plan that repriced moved down. The market average across tracked plans from 29 Texas REPs rose 0.9% to 7.90 cents per kWh, while the median held nearly flat at 6.66 cents. That is the shape of Texas commercial electricity rates September 2026 so far: a firmer average, a flat middle, and the movement concentrated at the edges.

The gap between those two numbers is the story worth watching. A market average that drifts up while the median sits still means the movement is concentrated in the expensive tail of the market, not in the fixed-term products most commercial buyers actually sign. For a business shopping a 12 to 24 month contract on the ERCOT grid right now, Texas commercial electricity rates look considerably calmer than the headline average suggests.

What's Moving the Market

• ERCOT load is holding near record highs. Weekly average load stayed close to historic peaks, driven largely by data-center and AI workloads, and tighter supply margins raise the odds of spot-price spikes during peak intervals. If you are on an indexed or block-and-index product, your annual cost risk is concentrated in a small number of hours. (UPG Energy market report, ERCOT grid and market data)
• Texas is pausing new data-center grid connections. Large-load interconnection requests reportedly jumped from roughly 48 GW in 2023 to more than 474 GW, and the state is verifying which projects are real before approving new connections. The pause is aimed at keeping speculative "ghost demand" from distorting grid planning. For commercial buyers, the near-term effect is less about price and more about how much of that forecast load planners actually treat as real. (Reuters)
• PUCT approved two West Texas transmission projects. Commissioners signed off on high-capacity lines intended to move wind and solar generation toward load centers, after route changes to reduce landowner impact. Added transmission capacity tends to relieve congestion over time, and congestion is a real component of delivered cost. This is a multi-year effect, not a next-quarter one. (Midland Reporter-Telegram, Public Utility Commission of Texas)
• Large buyers are going around the queue. Market commentary on Texas data-center procurement describes developers building their own gas plants, signing long-term power purchase agreements, and colocating behind the meter rather than waiting in the ERCOT interconnection queue. That competition for supply sits upstream of the retail market, but it shapes what Texas REPs can offer on longer terms. (ExecGraph Energy)

Pricing Trend Analysis: Texas Commercial Electricity Rates September 2026

The clearest structural signal in this week's data is where the curve is cheapest. Mid-term contracts in the 13 to 24 month range carry the lowest average pricing of any segment we track, below both the 1 to 12 month bucket and the 25 to 36 month bucket. Short-term pricing sits well above the rest of the curve, largely because that bucket is thick with month-to-month variable products rather than true short fixed terms. Buyers who read the short-term average as "short contracts are expensive" are misreading a product-mix effect.

By territory, Oncor plans carry the lowest average pricing among the five TDU areas we track, followed by TNMP, AEP Central, AEP North, and CenterPoint. Oncor also shows the widest spread between its cheapest and most expensive tracked plan, which is the practical argument for shopping rather than accepting a renewal quote: the distance between a good and a bad outcome inside a single territory is far larger than the distance between territory averages.

One caveat on week-over-week territory comparisons. The composition of the tracked pool shifted substantially this week as providers refreshed their commercial offers, so TDU-level averages are not measuring the same basket of plans they measured last week. The level readings above are sound. Week-over-week percentage swings at the territory level are not, and we are not publishing them as market movement when the underlying mix changed underneath them.

Our rate trend chart shows short-term and mid-term contract pricing continuing to diverge over the past four weeks, with the mid-term segment holding its discount while the short-term average drifts higher. See the full pricing breakdown in our data download.

REP Spotlight: Tara Energy

Tara Energy appears in our tracked commercial dataset with 68 plans this week, spanning all five TDU territories: Oncor, CenterPoint, AEP Central, AEP North, and TNMP. Statewide coverage across every deregulated territory is relatively uncommon and makes them a practical option for businesses with sites in more than one part of the state.

The defining characteristic of their tracked commercial book is term structure. Every Tara plan in our current dataset is a one-month, variable-rate product. There are no fixed multi-year commercial offers from them in the data this week, and no green energy options among the tracked plans. That single fact explains their rate positioning: their average sits above the overall market average, which is what you would expect from an all-variable, month-to-month book compared against a market where most plans are fixed terms of a year or longer. It reflects the product type, not a verdict on how they price against comparable offers.

The practical read: if you need flexibility while you evaluate a longer contract, or you are bridging a gap between terms, a month-to-month product has a real use case. If you are trying to budget a fixed energy line item for the next 24 months, this is not the shape of product that does that job. Get this REP's full plan data in our data download.

Buyer Intelligence

The two-way repricing this week is a signal to stop waiting for a bottom. When every plan that moves is moving down, waiting has an expected payoff. When the moves split evenly, the market is telling you it has found a level, and the value of holding out drops considerably. Layer on the ERCOT demand backdrop, where data-center load is pressing against supply margins, and the risk skew for the next several months points toward higher rather than lower.

The other point worth acting on: check your TDSP charges and your renewal window before you shop the energy rate. Delivery charges are a meaningful share of a commercial bill and they are set by your utility, not your REP, so they are the same across every offer you compare. Knowing your renewal date matters more, because a contract that rolls to a month-to-month variable rate after expiration is how most businesses end up paying the highest rates in this dataset without ever making a decision.

Should Texas commercial buyers lock in rates now or wait?

Buyers with contracts expiring in the next 60 to 90 days should be actively shopping now rather than waiting for further declines. This week's data showed repricing split evenly between increases and decreases across the 10 plans that moved, ending a run where all repricing went lower, which suggests the market has found a level. With ERCOT load holding near record highs on data-center demand, the downside case for waiting is weaker than the upside risk of rolling onto a variable rate.

What contract length offers the best value for Texas commercial buyers right now?

Mid-term contracts in the 13 to 24 month range currently carry the lowest average pricing of any segment in our tracked dataset, below both shorter and longer terms. The 25 to 36 month bucket prices above mid-term, meaning buyers are paying a premium for the extra duration rather than receiving a discount for the commitment. Unless you have a specific reason to lock past two years, the 13 to 24 month window is where the curve is cheapest this week.

Data Snapshot

• Tracked Texas REPs this week: 29
• Active commercial plans tracked: 1,000
• Plans that repriced this week: 10
• Plans removed from market: 2
• Market average rate: 7.90 cents per kWh (up 0.9% week over week)
• Median rate: 6.66 cents per kWh
• Rate range across tracked plans: 4.50 to 19.2 cents per kWh
• Average contract term: 22.3 months

Full rate data, plan comparisons, and historical trends are available in our data download. You can also browse current plans on the plan browser, compare against last week's market report, or review the full Weekly Market Insights archive and daily market news.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are current Texas commercial electricity rates?

The market average across 1,000 tracked commercial plans from 29 Texas REPs is 7.90 cents per kWh as of September 7, 2026, up 0.9% from the prior week. The median is 6.66 cents, and tracked plans range from 4.50 to 19.2 cents per kWh. The gap between the average and the median reflects a small number of high-priced variable products pulling the average upward.

Which TDU territory has the lowest commercial electricity rates right now?

Oncor carries the lowest average commercial pricing among the five Texas TDU territories tracked this week, followed by TNMP, AEP Central, AEP North, and CenterPoint. Oncor also shows the widest spread between its cheapest and most expensive tracked plan, so the territory average matters far less than which specific offer you sign inside it.

How is ERCOT data-center demand affecting Texas commercial electricity rates?

The effect so far is on risk rather than on headline retail pricing, which moved less than 1% this week. ERCOT load is holding near record highs on data-center and AI workloads, and large-load interconnection requests have reportedly climbed from about 48 GW in 2023 to more than 474 GW, prompting the state to pause new data-center connections while it screens out speculative projects. For commercial buyers, that backdrop argues for fixed-rate contracts over indexed exposure, because the demand pressure shows up first as peak-interval price spikes.