TCRI: Commercial Electricity Index Eases to 7.04 Cents as Solar and Storage Cut ERCOT Summer Prices, Week of Oct 26, 2026

Bottom line: The TxCP Commercial Rate Index (TCRI) from the texascommercialplans.com database eased to 7.04 cents per kWh across 14,223 tracked Texas commercial electricity plans in the ERCOT deregulated market as of October 26, 2026, from 7.06 cents on October 19. All five TDU medians slipped, and repriced plans moved lower by about three to one. The bigger story: the solar industry's trade group says solar and storage cut ERCOT's average summer wholesale price 42 percent since 2021, while delivery costs kept rising. Updated weekly.

Market Pulse

Across the 14,223 commercial electricity plans we track as of October 26, 2026, the TxCP Commercial Rate Index sits at 7.04 cents per kWh, 0.02 cents below October 19. A 0.02-cent dip in an average is noise on its own. What sets this week apart is breadth: every TDU median moved down, by 0.01 cents in AEP North up to 0.05 cents in Oncor.

Repricing points the same way. Of 7,176 plans matched to our prior snapshot, 1,714 changed price: 1,282 lower and 432 higher, the reverse of last week's 891 up and 554 down. The TCRI has now edged down in four straight reports, from 7.17 cents on September 28, though catalog growth from 11,375 plans explains some of that drift.

What Moved This Week and Why It Matters

The most consequential development for Texas commercial buyers this week is new evidence that solar and battery storage are pulling down the energy side of the bill while the delivery side keeps rising. That split matters at renewal time, because the two halves of a commercial invoice are priced by different parties and respond to different forces.

What Happened

On October 22 the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), the trade group for the solar and storage industry, published an analysis of summer wholesale prices in ERCOT and California (SEIA release, reprinted by CleanTechnica). Using inflation-adjusted June to August averages, it found ERCOT's weighted average wholesale price fell 42 percent, from $54.97 per MWh in summer 2021 to $31.77 per MWh in summer 2026, even as Texas demand grew 30 percent. Over the same five years, Texas solar generation rose 421 percent and battery storage capacity grew more than 26-fold. SEIA puts the June to August 2026 savings for Texans at about $3.55 billion.

The same analysis shows how little of that reached bills. Texas residential generation costs fell only 4 percent, and transmission and distribution costs pushed overall residential bills up 3 percent. ESS News, reading the full report, puts the Texas increases at 17 percent for transmission and 23 percent for distribution.

Impact on Texas Commercial Buyers

Contract. A 42 percent wholesale drop does not mean a 42 percent cheaper quote. SEIA's summer 2026 average works out to about 3.18 cents per kWh, under half of this week's 7.04-cent TCRI, because a fixed commercial energy rate also covers line losses, ancillary services, ERCOT fees, load shaping, term risk and the provider's margin. And the comparison spans 2021 to 2026, a five-year shift that today's offers already reflect, not a fresh discount waiting to arrive.

Budget. The delivery side is moving the other way, and its next lever arrives on November 4, when the PUCT's utility storage rule, 16 TAC 25.58, takes effect (PUCT order). It lets TDUs contract for up to 100 MW of battery storage statewide and recover approved costs through delivery charges, as we detailed in our October 21 briefing. That adds to riders already raised this fall, such as CenterPoint's September 30 DCRF increase.

Timing. Solar does its heaviest lifting on summer afternoons. Winter is the harder test: ERCOT's December outlook puts the riskiest hour at 7 to 8 a.m., before solar output ramps, as we covered in our October 7 briefing. Storage covers part of that ramp, but any quote signed now for a term spanning this winter still prices that morning risk.

The Bill Split Check: Four Questions Before You Price a Renewal

Which half are you shopping? Your REP sets the energy rate, where solar and storage add downward pressure. TDU delivery charges are PUCT-approved pass-throughs, and that is where costs are rising.
Does the energy rate match this week's market? Set each quote against this week's medians: 5.96 cents for 1 to 12 months, 6.16 cents for 13 to 24 months and 6.55 cents for 25 months and up.
When does your business use power? Daytime-heavy loads line up with the solar hours that pulled summer prices down. A fixed plan with separate daytime and evening rates can price that difference.
What can change mid-term? List every pass-through line: DCRF, TCRF, ERCOT securitization charges, and any storage contract cost approved under the new rule.

What You Should Do This Week

Split your last invoice into energy charges and TDU delivery charges, and note what share of the total each one is.
If your term ends before March 2027, request 12-, 24- and 36-month quotes on the same day and compare them with the medians above.
If your load runs mostly during business hours, ask for a daytime and evening fixed-rate quote next to a flat fixed one.
If your site can cut load within 10 or 30 minutes, ERCOT's winter Emergency Response Service needs site data by October 30. The full timeline is in our October 9 briefing.

Questions to ask your REP or broker:

How much of this fixed energy rate is forward wholesale cost, and how much is winter risk premium?
Which delivery charges pass through during my term, and how will you tell me when one changes?
Do you offer a time-of-use fixed rate for my load profile, and what would it have cost me last summer?

Also moving

EIA: Texas commercial electricity averaged 8.96 cents per kWh in August 2026. That is up from 8.76 cents a year earlier, per the Electric Power Monthly released October 23 (EIA Table 5.6.A). The all-in figure includes delivery, which is why it runs above the energy-only TCRI.
ERCOT's Winter Storm Uri uplift charge fell today. The daily securitization amount drops to $389,569 from $394,452 starting Operating Day October 26 (ERCOT notice), and the companion default charge rises November 1, as our October 16 briefing explains.
Automatic load shedding goes to five stages on November 1. ERCOT confirmed the date on October 20 (ERCOT notice), with details in our October 23 briefing.

Pricing Trend Analysis

Texas commercial electricity pricing edged lower across our tracked plans as of October 26, 2026: all five TDU medians fell between 0.01 and 0.05 cents from October 19, and the five medians now span 6.31 to 6.54 cents per kWh, a 0.23-cent band against 0.21 cents a week ago.

Oncor posted the largest drop and holds the lowest median, 6.31 cents, and the lowest average, 6.92 cents. AEP Central keeps the highest median, 6.54 cents, and CenterPoint the highest average, 7.13 cents.

Date	Segment	Plans	Low	Median	Median on 2026-10-19	High
2026-10-26	Oncor	3,217	$0.0351	$0.0631	$0.0636	$0.2526
2026-10-26	AEP North	2,565	$0.0430	$0.0643	$0.0644	$0.2533
2026-10-26	AEP Central	2,929	$0.0430	$0.0654	$0.0657	$0.2574
2026-10-26	CenterPoint	2,792	$0.0375	$0.06485	$0.0650	$0.2390
2026-10-26	TNMP	2,720	$0.0430	$0.0641	$0.0645	$0.2612
2026-10-26	Short-term (1 to 12 months)	5,422	$0.0351	$0.0596	$0.0598	$0.2612
2026-10-26	Mid-term (13 to 24 months)	3,590	$0.0430	$0.0616	$0.0619	$0.1800
2026-10-26	Long-term (25 months and up)	1,880	$0.0430	$0.0655	$0.0657	$0.1810

The term rows cover the 10,892 plans with a stated contract length. Short-term plans keep the lowest median, 5.96 cents, and the highest average, 7.52 cents, because offers priced as high as 26 cents pull the average up. Mid-term costs 0.20 cents more on medians, and locking beyond 24 months another 0.39 cents. Term moves the median more than two and a half times as much as territory (0.59 cents against the 0.23-cent TDU band), as our TDU versus contract term guide explains. See the full pricing breakdown in our data download.

Every tracked plan, REP and TDU territory comes as a $10 CSV, refreshed twice a day. Browse current rates or download today's snapshot.

REP Spotlight: Rhythm

Rhythm holds our spotlight for a second week, and the solar and storage story gives its business lineup a new reading. The Houston provider operates as Rhythm Ops, LLC under PUCT certificate 10279, according to the PUCT REP directory, and lists 70 active commercial plans in our catalog.

Its plans in our data cover all five ERCOT deregulated TDU territories, with terms from 12 to 36 months, and directionally they sit below the market average across the plans we track. Rhythm says every plan it sells is powered by 100 percent renewable energy (Rhythm renewable energy page). For business customers it offers a simple fixed-rate plan and PowerShift Business, which fixes separate daytime and evening rates for 12, 24 or 36 months and sets the lower one for business hours.

That structure fits the pattern in SEIA's data, where solar output weighs on daytime prices, and suits a business that works mostly in daylight. Get this provider's full plan data in our data download.

Buyer Intelligence

Texas small business shoppers saw a softer energy market this week. The Houston to Dallas median gap widened to 2.8 percent (CenterPoint 6.485 cents against Oncor 6.31 cents), still small next to the 0.59-cent term spread.

What is the TxCP Commercial Rate Index this week?

The TxCP Commercial Rate Index is 7.04 cents per kWh as of October 26, 2026, the average energy-only rate across 14,223 active commercial plans from 29 retail electric providers in our database. It has edged down in four straight reports, from 7.17 cents on September 28, while the catalog grew from 11,375 plans, so part of that drift comes from the mix of plans rather than repricing alone.

Do lower ERCOT wholesale prices mean lower commercial electricity rates?

Only partly, and only on the energy side. SEIA found ERCOT's average summer wholesale price fell 42 percent from 2021 to 2026, yet Texas residential generation costs fell just 4 percent and transmission and distribution costs pushed total bills up. For a commercial account, the gain shows up in competitive energy offers, while TDU delivery charges follow PUCT-approved rates that are still rising.

Data Snapshot

Our October 26, 2026 snapshot spans 29 retail electric providers and 14,223 active commercial plans across all five ERCOT deregulated TDU territories, with every TDU median below its October 19 level.

Tracked REPs: 29 retail electric providers with active commercial plans.
Active commercial plans: 14,223, up from 13,664 on October 19.
Market average rate (TCRI): 7.04 cents per kWh, versus 7.06 cents on October 19.
Plans repriced this week: 1,714 of the 7,176 plans we matched to our prior snapshot, 432 higher and 1,282 lower.
Average contract term: 24.1 months across tracked plans.
Lowest TDU median: Oncor at 6.31 cents per kWh. Highest: AEP Central at 6.54 cents per kWh.
Term medians: 5.96 cents short-term, 6.16 cents mid-term, 6.55 cents long-term.

This report shows aggregate commercial rate bands. Full provider-level plan data is available to Texas Commercial Plans data download customers.

Full rate data and plan comparisons are in our data download. For last week's baseline, see our October 19 weekly report, and for context, our guide to Texas commercial electricity rates.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are Texas commercial electricity rates as of October 26, 2026?

The TxCP Commercial Rate Index sits at 7.04 cents per kWh across 14,223 tracked commercial plans as of October 26, 2026, down from 7.06 cents on October 19. Medians by TDU territory range from 6.31 cents in Oncor to 6.54 cents in AEP Central.

How much did solar and storage lower ERCOT wholesale prices?

SEIA's October 22, 2026 analysis found ERCOT's average summer wholesale price fell 42 percent, from $54.97 per MWh in summer 2021 to $31.77 per MWh in summer 2026 in inflation-adjusted dollars, while Texas electricity demand grew 30 percent. SEIA credits the growth of solar generation and battery storage.

Why are Texas delivery charges rising when wholesale prices fell?

Delivery charges pay for the transmission and distribution network, not energy, and the PUCT sets them through TDU rate cases and riders such as the DCRF. SEIA's analysis shows those costs pushing Texas residential bills up 3 percent from summer 2021 to summer 2026, and from November 4, 2026 TDUs can also recover approved battery storage contract costs through delivery charges.