TX Commercial Electricity Jul 2026: 49% Gap

Market Pulse

Across the 736 active Texas commercial electricity plans tracked in the texascommercialplans.com database for the week of July 21 through July 27, 2026, the marketwide average rate landed at 10.28 cents per kWh against a median of 8.25 cents. That 2 cent gap between mean and median is the story. A small cluster of variable rate flex products repriced into the ERCOT summer peak, several of them more than doubling, and dragged the average well above what a typical business is actually being quoted.

Underneath the average, the market barely moved. Of the 136 plans from 29 Texas REPs that persisted week over week in a form we could match one to one, 116 held their rate completely unchanged. Only 20 moved at all: 11 higher and 9 lower. Four of the five TDU territories posted lower average rates than the prior week.

For a commercial buyer, that combination matters. It means the fixed price offers you were quoted two weeks ago are, in most cases, still on the table at the same number. The volatility this week sat almost entirely in variable and indexed products, which is exactly where you would expect it in late July.

What's Moving the Market

ERCOT set a new all-time demand record, and batteries absorbed the peak. Maximum net load hit 75,733 MW while battery discharge reached roughly 11,980 MW during the same window, according to reporting on ERCOT grid data. Solar carried much of the daytime load and storage shaved the late afternoon ramp. For buyers, the practical read is that peak hour exposure now drives more bill variance than the headline energy rate on the contract.
ERCOT's RTC+B design shifts scarcity pricing toward real-time ancillary services. Real-Time Co-Optimization Plus Battery dispatches energy and ancillary services together and models storage more accurately, and market analysis on the change warns that scarcity value is migrating into ancillary charges. If your contract passes ancillary costs through, your risk profile changed this year even if your energy rate did not.
Texas is on pace to take roughly half of US utility-scale battery additions in 2026. National forecasts put the country on track for about 24 GW of utility-scale storage this year, with Texas expected to account for roughly 53 percent of the buildout. More storage on the system compresses evening peaks over time, which is an argument against locking in a long-dated premium priced off today's peak risk.
Load growth pressure is showing up in municipal utility messaging too. CPS Energy publicly stated no rate increase is planned as Texas braces for a demand surge. San Antonio is a municipal territory, so commercial choice buyers there cannot shop anyway, but the signal is useful: utilities across the state are positioning publicly around load growth, and that pressure eventually reaches deregulated pricing.

Pricing Trend Analysis: Texas Commercial Electricity Rates in July 2026

The sharpest structural feature of the market right now is the term curve, and it is steeply inverted against short contracts. Plans in the 1 to 12 month band average 11.67 cents per kWh across 430 tracked plans. The 13 to 24 month band averages 8.21 cents across 118 plans. The 25 to 36 month band averages 7.84 cents across 71 plans. A business signing short in late July is paying roughly 49 percent more per kWh than one signing long.

That spread is not subtle, and it is not evenly distributed. Short-term plans make up 58 percent of everything listed, while long-term plans account for under 10 percent. In other words, the cheapest tier of the market is also the thinnest, and it gets thinner as REPs pull products through the summer.

By territory, Oncor holds the lowest average at 9.68 cents per kWh across 193 plans, followed by AEP North at 10.25 cents, AEP Central at 10.36 cents, and TNMP at 10.51 cents. CenterPoint sits highest at 10.89 cents. CenterPoint was also the only territory to move higher week over week, while the other four all trended lower. Plans in Oncor territory showed the widest spread between the cheapest and most expensive available offers, which means comparison shopping pays off most there.

One caveat worth stating plainly. Catalog turnover this week exceeded the measurement ceiling in both directions: more than 500 plans were withdrawn and more than 500 new ones were listed against a live catalog of 736. When that much of the shelf is replaced in seven days, a straight marketwide average comparison against the prior week is not a like-for-like read, and we are not going to publish it as one. The matched-plan view (136 plans, 85 percent unchanged) and the territory-level view are the defensible signals this week.

Our rate trend chart shows the short-term and long-term bands diverging steadily through the last four weeks rather than converging, which is the opposite of the pattern we saw in the spring. See the full pricing breakdown, including per-term and per-territory detail, in our data download.

REP Spotlight: Frontier Utilities

Frontier Utilities is a Houston-based retail electric provider and a familiar name in Texas comparison listings. In our commercial dataset this week it carries a deliberately narrow book: 3 active commercial plans, all fixed rate, with terms spanning 12 to 24 months.

Coverage is limited to Oncor and TNMP territory, so businesses in CenterPoint, AEP Central, or AEP North will not see them in a quote set at all. Every one of their listed commercial plans carries a green energy component, which is unusual at this catalog size and suggests a targeted rather than volume-driven strategy.

On positioning, their average sits below the marketwide average for commercial plans this week. With only three products and two territories, the sample is small enough that a single product change would move their profile significantly, so treat the positioning as a snapshot rather than a trend. Get this REP's full plan data in our data download.

Buyer Intelligence

The actionable takeaway this week is about term selection, not timing. With long-term contracts averaging 49 percent below short-term ones, the cost of staying flexible is unusually high right now. If your load is stable and your facility plans are settled through 2028, the curve is paying you to commit. If you genuinely need optionality, price that optionality honestly: it is currently running close to 3.8 cents per kWh, which on a 500,000 kWh annual load is roughly $19,000 a year.

The second point is about product type. Nearly all of this week's upward movement came from variable and flex products, several of which more than doubled. If you are sitting on a variable rate commercial plan going into August, you are carrying the most exposed position in the market at the worst point in the calendar. Check what your current plan actually is before you check what a new one costs.

Should Texas commercial buyers lock in rates now or wait?

Lock in, and lean toward a term past 12 months. This week's data shows 116 of 136 matched plans held their rate flat, so waiting is unlikely to be rewarded with broad price relief, while short-term plans carry a 49 percent premium over long-term ones. The one group that should wait is buyers with contracts expiring after March 2027, since the storage buildout should soften the peak-risk premium that is inflating short-dated pricing today.

What are current Texas commercial electricity rates?

As of the week of July 21 to 27, 2026, Texas commercial electricity plans in our tracked set average 10.28 cents per kWh with a median of 8.25 cents, across 736 active plans from 29 Texas REPs. Offers range from 4.49 cents to 21.7 cents per kWh depending on term, territory, and rate structure. The median is the more useful number for a typical business, because the average is inflated by a small number of high-priced variable products.

Data Snapshot

Tracked REPs this week: 29
Active commercial plans: 736
Marketwide average rate: 10.28 cents per kWh (median 8.25 cents)
Rate range across all plans: 4.49 to 21.7 cents per kWh
Plans with rate changes: 20 of 136 matched plans (11 higher, 9 lower, 116 unchanged)
Plans added this week: 500 or more (measurement ceiling reached)
Plans removed this week: 500 or more (measurement ceiling reached)
Average contract term: 16.8 months
TDU territories tracked: 5 (Oncor, CenterPoint, AEP Central, AEP North, TNMP)

Full rate data, plan comparisons, and historical trends are available in our data download. Prior weeks are archived in Weekly Market Insights, including last week's report, and day-to-day catalog movement is covered in Daily Market News.

Frequently Asked Questions

Which Texas TDU territory has the lowest average commercial electricity rate right now?

Oncor carries the lowest average at 9.68 cents per kWh across the 193 commercial plans tracked in its footprint. AEP North follows at 10.25 cents, AEP Central at 10.36 cents, and TNMP at 10.51 cents. CenterPoint is the most expensive at 10.89 cents, roughly 12.5 percent above Oncor, and it was the only territory to post a higher average than the prior week. Current grid conditions behind these territories are published on the ERCOT market dashboards.

Why did the average Texas commercial electricity rate rise when most plans did not change price?

Because the catalog changed, not the pricing. Of the 136 plans that could be matched one to one against the prior week, 116 held their rate completely unchanged. The marketwide average moved because more than 500 plans were withdrawn and more than 500 new ones were listed, which reshuffled the mix of products the average is calculated across. This is a composition effect, and it is why we lead with the matched-plan view instead.

What contract length offers the best value for Texas commercial buyers in July 2026?

Long-term contracts of 25 to 36 months average 7.84 cents per kWh, which is 49 percent below the 11.67 cent average on 1 to 12 month plans. Mid-term 13 to 24 month plans average 8.21 cents, only about 5 percent above the long-term tier. Most of the available discount is captured by simply moving past 12 months rather than by extending all the way to 36, which matters if you want to keep some flexibility. For historical context on how Texas compares nationally, the EIA commercial electricity price tables track state-level averages monthly.

Data source: texascommercialplans.com proprietary plan database, week of July 21 to 27, 2026. Aggregate figures only. Verify all rates directly with the retail electric provider before signing.