ERCOT's January 2027 MORA Puts Peak Grid Risk at 3.20 Percent at 7 to 8 a.m., More Than Double Last January's 1.4 Percent
ERCOT's January 2027 MORA puts the month's highest grid emergency risk at 3.20% in the 7 to 8 a.m. hour, more than double last January's 1.4% and still well under its 10% threshold. For commercial buyers, January is the first month of every 2027 fixed term, so the morning ramp is priced into the contracts being signed now.
On November 6, 2026, ERCOT published its Monthly Outlook for Resource Adequacy (MORA) for January 2027, and it puts the month's highest grid emergency risk at 3.20% in Hour Ending 8:00 a.m. CST, the 7:00 to 8:00 a.m. hour. That is more than double the 1.4% ERCOT modeled for the same hour of January 2026, and still well under the 10% level ERCOT treats as elevated, so this is not a shortage warning. For Texas commercial electricity buyers, the report matters for a simpler reason: January is the first month of every fixed-rate contract that starts on January 1, 2027.
What Happened
ERCOT's January 2027 MORA, posted November 6, 2026, names Hour Ending 8:00 a.m. Central Standard Time as the hour with the highest Energy Emergency Alert (EEA) risk, at a 3.20% probability, against a deterministic load forecast of 78,912 MW for that hour on a January peak-load day. That forecast is the 50th percentile, assumes average January weather and includes new large loads ERCOT expects to be energized by January. For the same hour, ERCOT puts the chance of ordering controlled outages, which it defines as the probability that capacity available for operating reserves (CAFOR) falls below 1,500 MW, at 2.79%, and the chance of normal system conditions at 95.16%.
ERCOT's own threshold frames that number. In the report's words, "ERCOT considers an EEA probability at or below 10% to indicate that the reserve adequacy risk is low for the monthly peak load day." The January figure sits inside that low-risk band. What is new is the like-for-like comparison: for the first time this winter, the same hour of the same month can be read against ERCOT's report from a year earlier.
| MORA report | Posted | Highest EEA risk hour (CST) | EEA probability | Load forecast for that hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 2026 (last winter) | Nov 7, 2025 | Hour Ending 8:00 a.m. (7 to 8 a.m.) | 1.4% | 77,387 MW |
| December 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | Hour Ending 8:00 a.m. (7 to 8 a.m.) | 2.95% | 75,148 MW |
| January 2027 | Nov 6, 2026 | Hour Ending 8:00 a.m. (7 to 8 a.m.) | 3.20% | 78,912 MW |
Source: ERCOT MORA reports for January 2026, December 2026 and January 2027.
Read across the table, three comparisons carry the story. Year over year, the January EEA probability rose from 1.4% to 3.20%, about 2.3 times, while the load forecast for the hour rose 1,525 MW. The chance of ordering controlled outages in that hour rose from 1.18% in the January 2026 report to 2.79%. Month over month, January 2027 sits 0.25 percentage points above December's 2.95%, with 3,764 MW more forecast load. These are separate monthly outlooks, each for its own peak-load day, so the December and January probabilities do not add up to a winter total.
ERCOT also ran a severe winter storm case for the 8:00 a.m. hour, simulating loads from 85,000 MW to 99,000 MW with added weather-related thermal outages and wind turbine icing. Its December 2026 storm case for the same hour ran from 78,000 MW to 90,000 MW.
The report does not put a single cause on the rise from last January, but it names the inputs that moved. In its review of historical January outage trends, ERCOT notes that January 2026 unplanned thermal outages were "significantly higher than for January 2025 and moderately higher than for January 2024." It flags "a new contributor to reserve shortage risk": the potential need, under certain grid conditions, to limit power transfers from South Texas into the San Antonio region. On the supply side, ERCOT expects 1,178 MW of new winter-rated capacity since the December MORA was prepared, made up of 807 MW of energy storage, 325 MW of solar and 46 MW of gas, with wind unchanged. This is also the first MORA to use a new battery energy storage sub-model, which ERCOT says leaves the modeled EEA risk "slightly lower" than it would be without it, all else held constant. The higher January number is therefore not a product of that model change.
Read the primary sources: the January 2027 MORA, the December 2026 MORA and the January 2026 MORA.
Impact on Commercial Electricity Buyers in Texas
A 3.20% modeled risk will not change a bill by itself, but it lands in the first month of every calendar-2027 contract, and we see three channels where this report reaches a commercial account: who carries the 7 to 8 a.m. hour, the winter shape priced into fixed offers, and what happens when a term ends right before January.
Who carries the 7 to 8 a.m. hour. If your contract passes ERCOT real-time prices through, for all of your load or a share of it, a cold January weekday morning is where tight reserves would reach you, because real-time prices can rise sharply without any declared emergency. A fixed all-in price moves that hour's price risk to your retail electric provider for the full term. Our guide to fixed vs variable rate commercial plans covers how each structure bills.
Winter shape inside fixed offers. Providers price fixed commercial offers off forward wholesale prices for every month of the term, and winter mornings are part of that cost. A 12-month term starting January 1, 2027 prices one January morning ramp, a 24-month term prices two and a 36-month term prices three. In the published commercial offers we track across all five TDU territories (Oncor, CenterPoint, AEP Texas Central, AEP Texas North and TNMP), median plan rates by territory sat between 6.27 and 6.46 cents per kWh on November 11, 2026, across 16,945 active offers. The TxCP Commercial Rate Index (TCRI) stood at 6.91 cents per kWh in our November 9 weekly report. The TCRI is an average across every plan we track, so short-term and premium-priced plans pull it above the territory medians. Those bands are the reference point for a January start quote, and a 3.20% modeled probability is not, on its own, a reason to accept a large winter premium above them.
Terms that end before January. Depending on the contract, an expiring commercial term can roll to a month-to-month or holdover rate set by the provider, which would put January's morning ramp on a price you did not shop. If your contract ends in December 2026 or January 2027, the start date of the next term decides which price covers those mornings. Winter peaks do not move transmission charges, which are set by summer 4CP intervals, as we covered in our read of the December 2026 MORA. Shifting load at 7 a.m. in January is an energy-cost move only.
The 8 a.m. Test: Three Checks Before You Fix a 2027 Rate
Before you sign or renew a fixed rate that covers January 2027, run the contract through the same three checks we use to read a MORA report, so a low headline probability neither lulls you into ignoring your exposure nor pushes you into a lock you do not need.
1. Is January 2027 inside a fixed price?
Check your current term end date and the start date of any renewal. If there is a gap between them, find out which rate applies in it. A January that falls on a holdover rate carries the morning ramp at whatever price the provider sets.
2. How many January mornings does the term price?
Ask for 12, 24 and 36 month quotes for the same start date and compare each against current territory medians. A longer term prices more winters, so a higher rate is not automatically a worse deal, but a large gap between terms deserves an explanation from the provider.
3. Which share of my load sees the 7 to 8 a.m. price?
If any share of your load floats on an index, or the contract passes through ERCOT market charges, you carry part of that hour. Electric heat, commercial kitchens and production lines that start between 6 and 8 a.m. stack onto the grid's riskiest hour, and that is the load to shift first.
What You Should Do
Most commercial accounts can work through these four steps before December, well ahead of the January peak-load window, and they apply whether your contract renews this winter or already runs into 2028.
- Pull your contract and Electricity Facts Label, then confirm your term end date and whether your energy price is fixed all-in, partly indexed, or passes through ERCOT charges.
- If your term ends in December 2026 or January 2027, request renewal quotes now so a new fixed term starts on time and January does not fall on a holdover rate.
- Compare 12, 24 and 36 month quotes against the current medians for your territory, and use our Texas electricity rates chart to see where today's bands sit against business power prices since 2021.
- If any load floats on an index, check your interval data for heating or equipment start-ups between 7 and 8 a.m. on cold days and move what you can outside that hour. ERCOT's winter Emergency Response Service term needed site data by October 30 and offers by November 9, so if you did not enroll, load shifting is the lever you control this winter.
Questions to Ask Your REP or Broker
These questions pin down how a provider handles the January morning ramp, which rarely shows up on a rate comparison but decides who pays if a cold January morning gets tight on the ERCOT grid.
- Is my energy price fixed and all-in for every hour of January 2027, including 7 to 8 a.m.?
- If my current term ends before the new one starts, which rate applies to the days in between?
- How do your 12, 24 and 36 month quotes for my meter compare for a January 1, 2027 start?
- Does the contract allow a price adjustment or extra charges if ERCOT declares an Energy Emergency Alert?
We will read the February 2027 MORA when ERCOT posts it, typically in early December. Subscribe to Weekly Market Insights, free. We publish a data-driven rate report every Monday.
To compare offers for your meter, see every commercial plan we track in our data download.
For the full picture, see the Texas commercial rates by TDU.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the ERCOT January 2027 MORA report say?
The ERCOT Monthly Outlook for Resource Adequacy for January 2027, posted November 6, 2026, puts the month's highest Energy Emergency Alert risk at 3.20% in Hour Ending 8:00 a.m. CST, the 7 to 8 a.m. hour, with a 78,912 MW load forecast. That is well below the 10% level ERCOT treats as elevated risk.
How does January 2027 grid risk compare with last January?
ERCOT's January 2026 MORA put the same 7 to 8 a.m. hour at a 1.4% EEA probability with a 77,387 MW load forecast. The January 2027 figure of 3.20% is about 2.3 times higher, with 1,525 MW more forecast load, and both sit under ERCOT's 10% threshold.
Does a 3.20% EEA probability mean rolling outages are likely in January 2027?
No. ERCOT considers an EEA probability at or below 10% to indicate low reserve adequacy risk. For the 7 to 8 a.m. hour on the January 2027 peak-load day, it models a 95.16% chance of normal system conditions and a 2.79% chance of ordering controlled outages.
Should a Texas business lock a fixed rate before January 2027?
It depends on your contract and term end date. A fixed all-in rate moves winter morning price risk to your provider for the full term. If your term ends in December 2026 or January 2027, compare quotes now against current bands: median plan rates by TDU territory sat between 6.27 and 6.46 cents per kWh on November 11, 2026.
See published commercial rates on the territory pages, or get every plan in the full dataset.